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Are you, in fact, a pregnant lady who lives in the apartment next door to Superdeath's parents? - Commodore |
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UK Politics Discussion Thread
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April 19th, 2019, 08:12
(This post was last modified: December 10th, 2024, 16:07 by MJW (ya that one).)
First and probably only NI fatality, Lyra McKee. To add salt to the would this is after France committed to extending forever, she is on the "Remain" team and this won't gain traction after Jo Cox who was deliberately targeted.
10DEC2024 edit: Changed thread title because Brexit is over.
TM has to offer her resignation to the Queen, and offer her advice on who could form a majority and lead the government.
Very real chance TM says that no one can lead a majority and screws over the new Tory leader (although constitutionally, she is required to do that). The brutal part is she will be proved right if she does nominate the new Tory leader, they can get through a vote of confidence again with the DUP, and then everything breaks because the new Tory leader is elected on a denial of a referendum and that causes further gridlock. We will wait and see what happens with the Euro elections, because Farage is probably right: The Tory base will not accept not leaving, and the Tory party implodes if any leader is elected that offers a referendum or remain stance. But given the Tory leader will be elected by the Tory party members, I can't see how such a leader is elected unless both candidates standing at the end are offering a Referendum. And I don't think that will happen as the ERG and other Tory MPs that want to leave will then coalesce around the last remaining candidate that refuses the referendum and accepts No Deal. tl;dr: Paralysis continues, but looks like No Deal is back on the table in a big way. Might even get a prorogration of parliament to force it to occur. 
No Deal seems to be the only way out for the Tory party now.
They'd get smashed by the Brexit Party in a snap election, leading to a Labour majority. If they revoke A50 they'd get smashed by Brexit in 2022, probably leading to an even stronger Labour majority since many Labour remainers who have been supporting the Lib Dems or Greens recently will go back now that Brexit isn't ruining Labour policy. And now that Farage has become the face of Brexit, he and No Deal will dominate the Leave campaign of another referendum, which would therefore probably lose, but would end up with the same result as revoking. Basically, the Brexit Party have ended their chances of winning a GE, so in order to cripple support for the Brexit Party they need to do what the Brexit Party wants and leave with no deal. The problem with that of course is No Deal isn't popular among the whole population, and it would also give Labour the opportunity to become the Remain party, taking back votes from the Greens and Lib Dems (not that there's any guarantee they's take that opportunity, they've already passed it over once). And all they'd need is ~35% of the votes for a majority. So in general, the Tories are screwed, Labour will (almost certainly) win the next GE, the only question is if Johnson or Raab or whoever will try to survive by leading the country into a No Deal Brexit.
May 24th, 2019, 09:42
(This post was last modified: May 24th, 2019, 09:50 by MJW (ya that one).)
Prorogation of Parliament would not work because there's a clause that says "constitutional procedures" and May getting around Parliament's will is arguably against Parliamentary Sovereignty. It's a bit of a stretch but much less of a stretch of allowing unilateral revoke so ECJ would annul UK's exit.
For a Brexit Deal worth giving up UK's seats, NI requires special treatment to avoid handing the Nationalists or Unionists a huge advantage. WTO allows you to break the rules for security so border isn't a problem but the UK and EU will go in different directions so without special treatment NI will get pulled into the UK or EU (Ireland). Ireland/Spain would veto this special treatment. So it's ether kick NI out against it's will, revoke, bad deal or No Deal. The solution would be a second referendum with it being Revoke vs No Deal but that's not poltical viable due to EU's bad habit of 'voting until you get it right'. Edit: I still believe EU will just extend forever to make Labour win the next GE who ether Revokes or non-Brexit brexits which would be handing other EU members free seats.
Just to be clear, the ECJ can't stop the UK leaving with no deal. To enable a no deal to occur, all the new PM has to do is stop parliament [amending the law that states the UK leaves the EU and requiring the PM write to the EU revoking Brexit].
Prorogation is one method of stopping that, but there are other ways. I'm not sure if Labour becoming the remain party actually helps them. Specifically, even though the Brexit party exists, they are not going to be putting pressure on Maps to extend article 50. Labour themselves can't force an extension or revocation. If a No Deal occurs, the Tories might actually survive and Labour end up grappling with smoke, and the Tories just run someone that can beat Corbyn.
There's rumors of a Farage voting compact.
 Best outcome is that triggers a Lib Dem--Labour--SNP compact which gets a majority of votes but loses the election due to Leave's geographic advantage (too many Remainer voters in London) and SF not taking their seats.
That assumes that all Tory/Brexit party voters would be willing to vote for the other party. A lot of tory voters would rather vote Lib Dem, or not vote at all, than support Farage (example: Peterborough and Local elections that saw Libdems make serious gains from the tories). And quite a few BP voters would vote UKIP over the Tories who they consider to have "betrayed the referendum".
I think in general people on the left are far more willing to vote for parties other than their preferred one in order to keep out the other side, especially if the Tories have allied themselves with Farage.
Labour would lose a lot of votes too. In order for the compact to happen Labour would have to switch to remain and there's big chuck of leave labour members (Kate Holey). If that compact doesn't happen Tories/Brexit instantly win due to vote splitting. I consider such an election would be a tossup. Pretty much all Brexit Party members would vote Tory because they don't need to trust the Tories after No Deal because breaking of Good Friday agreement would force events too, so I would consider it tilting Tory&Brexit.
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