[SPOILERS] Lurkers Thread - Well someone has to do it

[Maksim]

Ilios has a strike force of Soldiers of Kilmorph, and Thanes to support them. He's got Archery in case he wants some strength-5 defenders out, though he may as well just get cheap warriors almost everywhere (strength-4 with copper and innate city defense bonuses is quite good for the price).

Also, he's Creative, so there's extra city defense percentage; he can adopt Apprenticeship (if he hasn't done so already, which he most likely has... EDIT: actually, he has not!) for a Combat I on his defenders. If the Coalition tries to take or raze the holy city, it has to contend with extra cultural defense there.



Let's have a look at Ilios' land, and consider - where do the Coalition's forces arrive from? Mist comes from the west, via Luchuirp lands - if the dwarves survive, then this will be telegraphed well ahead of time.

Calabim and Balseraphs come from the east, and have a couple choices - strike the new city, or aim at the capital. If they synchronize their actions, they should be able to burn the new city, though it's likely to cost them, and won't set Malakim back that much, although it does get them an opportunity to manuever in-between Ilios' capital of Helios and En-Kai, RoK holy city.

Uberfish can either join Mist or try to use his two-movers strategically. However, IIRC, Hunters can't pillage, and throwing them at fortified cities is a waste of hammers. It may be worth it if the hunter is the decisive factor in whether a city stands or falls, but as uberfish goes right after Ilios in turn order, he'll likely be reluctant to throw them into the fray against top defenders.

Amelia is unknown at the moment - she comes from the south, but has a long trek ahead of her. She will most likely join Calabim\Balseraphs to ensure the new city in the south-east is overwhelmed for sure.

Also note that with Construction, and a couple more roads, the tile 2SW of the capital can be used as a staging ground for Ilios' forces - they can reinforce any of his three central cities in a single turn from there.

[Thoth]

I will definitely not stay in Kilmorph. I'd like to switch to Way of the Forest once I've got all my forests lumbermilled, and get the extra 2 Happy and 1 Health from the cheap Temples.

This seems a bit odd. Illios doesn't need to be running WotF to build the temples, he just needs to have the religion present in the city. He won't see any extra happy over RoK, the temple happy comes from the Religion Civic regardless of state religion. Swapping to WotF to get some Ancient Forests? Yes. Swapping to get a phantom bonus from the temples? No.

I don't need the Ashen Veil Holy city per se, because I just need the one Temple of the Veil to upgrade Lightbringers to Savants, who I can then upgrade to Mages

Nope. You don't need any Ashen Veil temples, nor do you need the religion present in order to upgrade Lightbringers to Mages directly (skipping the Savant step). All you need is a level 4 LB, Sorcery tech and the LB within the BFC of a city with a Mage guild. The LB->Savant upgrade is unnecesary.

[pocketbeetle]

But how did they solve the PB problem by attacking the Hippus?

The whole Hippus action was of course counterproductive. But darrelj+sunrise don't attack a trailing Civ to get little in return here but the sole Leader who might transform into a PB-esque monster if not slowed down.

In retrospect, we definitely should have addressed the PB problem early, probably right after the Hippus non-war. But he was far away, and we were still worried about Selrahc and his Priests of Winter.

Why does everyone keep sticking the word "problem" after my name?!?
I'm not a problem, I'm cute and cuddly!

...I just have a large number of Centaurs to make sure that you really do want to hug me back.


I've fallen behind lurking this pbem, will have to catch up soon, I just wanted to address this point made a while ago:

Some interesting analysis by Illios. But I think he's forgetting something:
If he plans to use the SoK offensively, and if he succeeds, he'll probably accumulate quite a few XP. After a couple promotions he'll be reluctant to sacrifice his Soldiers to recoup just half their hammer cost. In FFH, more so than BtS, you don't replace experienced but outdated units: you upgrade them. Which means that the Swordsmen/SoK hammer difference works against him - and will get worse for every additional unit he builds. Not to mention he'll want that Training Yard for Champions eventually. And no one should be paying a premium for SoK just for their Dwarven racial promotion.
(If, on the other hand, he doesn't intend to intervene, then he should just build more warriors. Cheap bronze warriors with their innate city defense bonus are the most effective (and efficient) deterrence at this stage.)

Agree with the underlying of what you're saying, but I think you're not identifying what Ilios is doing at this time.

He's moving from total builder mode (workers >= warriors) to semi builder mode in response to a perceived (and real) threat in Mist.
At that time he wasn't totally committing to building an army, and thus opted for the half measure of building SoKs.
These guys represent power and allow him to respond to anything unexpected showing up on his borders, but equally can be cashed in later for hammers should that threat not materialise.
Warriors while cheap yes, will just be a drain on his cash reserves in terms of both maintenance and eventually requiring upgrades, or alternatively deleting for a total hammer loss.

In other words, view Ilios building SoKs as a short/medium-term compromise between the two extremes of builder and militaristic.
He's not sure if he needs to build a massive army yet (wants to wait for Priesthood?), but is smart enough to realise that he needs to cover all the bases.

[pocketbeetle]

He's got 5 sons of asena, 2 wolves and 1 scout. 8 units altogether.

I have 12 warriors and a Wood Golem, that's 13 units. All my warriors are 4 str, and two of them have combat and shock 1. He will probably move his army north past the river next turn. I will then move most of my army into Mutanbo, and station the rest on the plains hill that his army is standing on now. If he attacks it to try get back to where he came from, he'll take severe losses because of the river and hill bonus. if he tries to take Mutanbo he'll fail. I'd guess he'll probably try moving northwest past the river, if so i'll have to try to cut him off.

He just pulled a golem in M. That makes 2 warriors and Golem in garrison. This also means at most one more warrior before I can strike at the city. Also, uberfish told me he just got trade connection with Ilios, which means Malakim got Fishing. I expect Sciz gets copper trade next turn. Which... still doesn't matter. I have enough up there to take the city. Loses should be similar - one unit weakens opposition and dies, second unit kills. Survivors might be more battered, but they are due to withdraw and rearm to copper afterwards regardless.
The group west of Ithrallia will kill the Skeleton, explore the barrow and dig in in CV.

Sciz is lapsing back into that happy world where the enemy does the most convenient thing for you.

Saying that, I really hope Mist has simulated the upcoming battle for Mutanbo before committing.
Factor in the warrior +25% innate, some fortification, culture and the river adding up to another +50%, all vs the relatively inexperienced Sons of Asena...

It looks pretty damn close to me.

[NobleHelium]

Mist says he withdrew. Definitely the good decision, considering Ilios was poised across the border regardless of results vs Sciz. I'd expect the stalemate to continue until the coalition makes its move, or lack thereof.

[Azoth]

In other words, view Ilios building SoKs as a short/medium-term compromise between the two extremes of builder and militaristic.

That's probably his reasoning, yes. And I'm probably biased because I'm fully aware of the conspiracy against him. But I still think it's a suboptimal play. SoK are very tempting to builders-at-heart: they offer deterrence now and hammers later. But, chances are, you'll never see the hammers again - because deterrence is always necessary and threats never fade in multiplayer: either they are removed permanently or they persist. Even the barbarians in FFH are no joke! And hammers saved for later are worth less than hammers saved now building warriors (general defense) and swordsmen (mobile response force) instead. Quick speed and God-King might obscure the true cost, but 90 (Normal speed) hammers is very pricy for the early game.

On a separate note:

Why does everyone keep sticking the word "problem" after my name?!?
I'm not a problem, I'm cute and cuddly!

...I just have a large number of Centaurs to make sure that you really do want to hug me back.

All joking aside (and allowing for no spoilers), I think the players are drawing the wrong conclusions from FFHPBEM1. PB didn't become a problem because he took a tech lead in the early game, he became a problem when he was left alone for hundreds of turns while everyone else was involved in early game conflicts. After all, Centaurs aren't exactly high-tech and Selrahc even got the Scientist from Arcane Lore (enabling Hemah) first. No, PB was simply allowed to found three religions and build wonders from all over the tech tree (Crown of Akharien, Pillar of Chains, Guild of Hammers) in peace. That isn't likely to happen this game - but, even so, marching warriors through teeming Wildlands to the nearest Financial civ isn't the way to stop it. The conspiracy against Illios stands to benefit the Calabim (it shifts the target away from them) and Ljosofar (they might not have to contribute much) but hurts the Lanun (who need to focus on their development) and Balseraph (who really should be worried about the vampires next door).

[NobleHelium]

Based on Sciz's last screenshot, he is due to go bankrupt on turn 84 unless he starts deleting warriors. Sooner if he takes that warrior stack out of his borders and starts incurring away costs. This could get interesting again quicker than expected.

[Iskender]

It'd be mean to point this out to Sciz at the moment, but over those dozen turns he apparetly lost more gc in unit maintenance alone than was the amount he had bargained for.

[Krill]

Ooooh someone really mean needs to tell him that in a few months.

[NobleHelium]

For sure, Sciz has already spent more turns doing nothing than he would have building up gold to pay Mist. And he still has to recover, and it was even suggested that maybe he should offer payment to Uberfish to attack Mist.