Politics Discussion Thread (Heated Arguing Warning)

[ipecac]

Anyone watching the clusterfuck that is British politics at the moment?

Civil war in both big parties

Time for civil war in the Democrat party.

Some Jewish leaders said she then revived an old trope about divided loyalties among Jewish Americans when she said: “I want to talk about the political influence in this country that says it is OK for people to push for allegiance to a foreign country.”

Omar added: “I want to ask, ‘Why is it OK for me to talk about the influence of the [National Rifle Association], or fossil fuel industries or big pharma, and not talk about a powerful lobbying group that is influencing policy?”’

[MJW (ya that one)]

It now depends if the EU declines to extend indefinitely or not. If they do then Remain can just run out the clock until an inevitable Labour government who non-Brexit Brexits or Revokes. If they don't mainline Tories can still block everything else which would force Coburn to prop up May. It wouldn't even be hard for Coburn because he would use the threat of IRA to let himself off the hook (they are a paper tiger after 9/11 but Coburn can still use them).

[Krill]

Corbyn. Its Corbyn.

And there is no way that Corbyn will prop up May. He will force a no deal Brexit and then blame the Tories for the economic losses at the next GE.

More likely that unilateral revoke occurs though imo.

[Gustaran]

The Guardian has a brilliant liveticker:

Tory MP leaving ERG meeting says mood is “realistic”
And then adds: “Question is, what is the reality?”
More of this scintillating content as we get it.

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/...8358234118

[Krill]

Theresa May is going to fall on her sword.

She is allowing a free vote on the "Leaving without a deal" motion, and will vote to stop the UK leaving with no deal.

So that removes the No Deal option, and puts the Tories in an unworkable position to leave the EU, and the path is open to an amendment to the extension of article 50 to instead revoke Article 50, on a free vote.

And if that fails then we hit the accidental No Deal.

[Gustaran]

Indeed, from reading the analysis it seems we will see a vote ruling out "no deal" tomorrow, followed by a vote to extend article 50 the day after tomorrow.

But the question remains, what is going to happen next? There are EU elections at the end of May and it seems impossible to imagine that the UK would take part in these. This means the extension can realistically be ~3 months at the most.

Dutch Prime Minister Rutte tweeted

Should the UK hand in a reasoned request for an extension, I expect a credible and convincing justification.

I wonder what this justification is supposed to be? Some commentators think only negotiations for a softer Brexit or a second referendum would qualify, but I wonder if there is a majority for either? Then again, the EU will probably just accept the extension in any case to avoid a "no deal" scenario this month...

[Krill]

The vote tomorrow is almost irrelevant.

Tomorrow whatever amendments happen, happen, because they are going to be ignored. Then on Thursday some MP tables the amendment to revoke article 50. It won't pass, but it will get some votes. Ken Clarke, SNP, Lib Dems will vote for it. Article 50 extension is requested after Parliament instructs May, and the EU says "Fuck off".

Then May falls on her sword and proposes the motion that is going to be voted on tomorrow, the one that removes No Deal form the table: it is amended to require the introduction of a statutory instrument to revoke Article 50 and amend the legislation that repeals the European Communities Act, that passes and hey presto, the UK remains in the EU.

The problem for the Tories is that they implode, the problem for Labour is they still can't force a GE.

[ipecac]

Theresa May is going to fall on her sword.

She is allowing a free vote on the "Leaving without a deal" motion, and will vote to stop the UK leaving with no deal.

So that removes the No Deal option, and puts the Tories in an unworkable position to leave the EU, and the path is open to an amendment to the extension of article 50 to instead revoke Article 50, on a free vote.

She was always a remainer.

[Krill]

That's irrelevant. She had no control over this scenario. You can blame the MPs who vote to revoke, but not her if this plays out.

[Bacchus]

So, it seems we are going to go down either to a unilateral free trade no-deal Brexit, or revocation. Either is pretty good, given the circumstances!