[SPOILERS] scooter's thread: England

[scooter]

Things still look bleak though... Because Portugal will fall next year. I guess the army on Europe isn't actually important so I can just disband that... It's tempting to take a swing at Rowain just because he's being annoying (read: not doing what I want him to do ), but that doesn't even seem worth it at this point. My goal will probably be to take the North Sea in the spring and then hope for the best in the Fall... But with the sheer number of fleets he has hanging around, it's going to be dicey.

[Maniac Marshall]

Welp, I guessed correctly. I actually had no choice... Regoarrar informed me that he would be covering St. Petersburg with Bot, so my only choice really was to go after Sweden (otherwise Norway would've lost), so I went for it and covered London... It's still some really awkward positioning and my position isn't great, but I'm not dead yet...

You're position is better mainly in that it didn't get worse though really (as you know), assuming he retreats to Ska and keeps the pressure on (can't see him preferring to build in Berlin, nothing else makes any sense) Still, you never know what can happen.

[Wyatan]

Didn't post earlier because Uberfish had posted his thoughts so mine wouldn't have been spoiler-free...

Well, that didn't go too badly actually : he made no gain, and you suffered no loss.
Happily surprised that Rowain kept his word after all.

And you're in a much better shape than Russia who did not suffer additional center loss, but cannot rebuild its missing unit... That's both good and bad news for you : your only ally is crumbling fast, and may have to order F Stp - Lvn (if Austria manages to shuffle its troops this Spring so as to extend the line to Livonia, the red armies invade Moscow in fall and that's all she wrote), which would mean you don't get help in Scandinavia. On the other hand, it may spur the German-Austrian conflict faster than expected or at the very least divert two German fleets in Saint-Petersburg's direction so that he wouldn't totally be left out of the spoils.

The very bad news for you is that you're facing -2 this year : loss of Portugal, and Norway isn't likely to hold...

First thoughts :
- I'll assume no Saint-Petersburg diversion for now, F Nwy retreats to Ska..
- Spring moves :
A Bel - York via convoy
F Nth C A Bel - Yor
F Den S Nth
F Ska S Nth
F Swe - Fin ?
- The idea being to capture both Edinburgh and Norway in fall.

Tentative suggestion :
F Eng - Bel
F Mao - Eng
F Nwg - Edi
F Nwy - Nth
One loss is unavoidable, but the Gascony army is now useless (well, it pins down two German units which wouldn't be bad if those units were any actual threat to you).
So the idea here would be to reposition your fleets so that you can recapture the North sea (unfortunately can't do it this Spring except with help from Uberfish), and to exchange Belgium (or Holland) for Norway.

[antisocialmunky]

What if you went GAS->Convoy->BEL, NWG->EDI and let them land in England. Then they won't be able to prevent entry into Holland without having to convoy the army back or attack it with navy if they don't see it coming. You can then try to retake NTH.

[Maniac Marshall]

Tentative suggestion :
F Eng - Bel
F Mao - Eng
F Nwg - Edi
F Nwy - Nth
One loss is unavoidable, but the Gascony army is now useless (well, it pins down two German units which wouldn't be bad if those units were any actual threat to you).
So the idea here would be to reposition your fleets so that you can recapture the North sea (unfortunately can't do it this Spring except with help from Uberfish), and to exchange Belgium (or Holland) for Norway.

Not that I have anything better than the above, but there is actually a problem with it. Unless I'm missing something, this guarantees Germany Liverpool assuming he forces the convoy to Yorkshire (which I assume he will), since a fleet in Edi can not move there. You'd need a Fleet in Clyde, Wales, Irish Sea, or N Atl. to cover that. Also, if Germany moves Swe - Nwy, I think you are forcibly down two no matter what you do as you can't both cover the entire homeland and take one of the low countries too. Hopefully there's something I'm missing...

[Maniac Marshall]

What about this?

A Gas -> Lon
F MAO C Gas -> Lon
F Eng C Gas -> Lon
F Nor -> Cly
F Nwy -> Nor

While this is far from offering any certainty of maintaining 4 centers, it at least offers a very faint glimmer of hope of a coinflip guess. It's unlikely to work, but it's the only thing I see that has even a faint hope.

Edit: Actually this should forcibly falil too, because in the fall if you move Eng->Bel, he can forcibly take London from the North Sea. Blergh. Sorry, I've got nothing afterall.

[scooter]

Sorry that I bailed on the discussion here, I was finding myself mildly discouraged about the fact that I was realizing I'm going to need to be extremely lucky to even get -1 center this turn. That's my goal by the way - lose only 1 center and I'll be thrilled. I could very well go -3 which is discouraging, but I'm going to do what I can. I also just now decided to poke Uberfish via chat and ask him what it would take to let me live, letting him know I'd be open to some sort of vassalization and helping him win. Basically I'll just let him make an offer if he wants and I'll consider it.

Looking at the tactical situation, the key territory appears to be Wales, as it's the only tile that lets me cover London and Liverpool at once, and if I don't cover Liverpool, it's gone this year for sure. I have my orders mostly figured out, and I think it'll give me a respectable chance at finishing the year at -1 centers.

[scooter]

Well, here's the deal with Uberfish:

Hi, was thinking about your proposed vassalization and this is what i could offer

1) A guarantee of English survival unless it was the only way to reach 18 SC, if the game should reach a stalemate I won't eliminate you from the draw or support other players to do so

2) Your involvement in the tactical decision making if you like, your units will be an important part of the front

3) Prime beach front property in Spain

If you still intend to go through with it, moving MAO-POR and ENG-MAO will signal your intentions and I'll work with you from there. I'll need Norway and probably another SC to try and rush east quickly while Austria and Russia are disorganized.

I'm about 90% sure I'm going to agree with this. Basically:

1) I give up Norway and a home center
2) I get to keep 2 home centers, Portugal, Spain, letting me run around with 4 fleets and run support in the Mediterranean for Uberfish to conquer Italy/Marseilles
3) I get to survive unless Uberfish can get to 18 with my remaining centers
4) I get to do something more fun than playing defense against the inevitable

I feel mildly bad about the idea of stabbing Rowain again, and then I remember that he's been pretty uncooperative with me, he lied at least once to Russia, and my feelings on him all game long has been "wow he's hard to read and I just don't trust him." A lot of that probably just comes with the turf of being Italy so I don't worry about it too much. I guess I figure Germany has played well and I wouldn't mind him winning, so if I can manage to survive til the end, I can live with that. I offered my help to Italy/Russia first, and I didn't really get much back (from Italy that is - Russia has been mildly helpful but handicapped by the fact that Austria is out of control), so I'll try the other side now.

--------------------

Now, I'm not 100% decided yet. I still have "defensive" orders submitted, but I'll probably swap my orders. I have about 9 hours to change my mind though, so I'm thinking about it. I'm curious what the lurkers here think.

[Gustaran]

I don't like the idea of vassalization. Ok, if France had somehow managed to force you into a bad position and now your only chance was to cooperate with uberfish, I'd say go for it.
But Uberfish was the one who stabbed you and what does he get ? A vassal and very good chances to win. If I were in your position I would work very hard to make uberfishes' life as miserable as possible.

It's also a question of player reputation: If you play future games and it's well known that stabbing you comes with a high price, people will think twice about doing it. But if everybody knows backstabbing you will give them a complying vassal, well, then the choice is rather easy.

Now granted, I am not exactly sure what the goal is if you can't win this game and if you get some sort of points for survival. But I personally would rather go down and prevent an uberfish win than help him take 1st place.

[scooter]

It's also a question of player reputation: If you play future games and it's well known that stabbing you comes with a high price, people will think twice about doing it. But if everybody knows backstabbing you will give them a complying vassal, well, then the choice is rather easy.

Hmmm, this is a very good point.