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Cheater Hater's PBEM58 Thread (with a surprise post lead!)

I don't remember exactly, but it's a formula involving both current output and accumulated culture. Might be something like total current output (food/prod/commerce of various types) + accumulated culture / 10?
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You looked it up and posted something like that in the ISDG forum, yes.
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By lapping it up do you mean "making me paranoid whenever there's posts in the lurker thread immediately after I post my report"? If so then you're definitely lapping it up smile

The top cities formula looks really interesting--it could tell me which civs are in which positions in the GNP/etc rankings (especially in the early game when stuff like food, production, and culture are all very similar/the same), but not only am I not caring quite that much about that minutia at this point, I'm close to getting graphs on all the relevant civs at this point.

Thanks for the encouragement by the way--we did get another turn today, so the report is coming up shortly--just have to finish making sure I have all the pictures I need and then send the save along smile
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T25 Report:
I feel like I'm making you miss something when I don't post the capital when things are happening, so you get another boring picture along with your scout move:




I guess I was technically right that B4ndit stretched farther than I did--the fat crosses aren't touching at least tongue
Yeah, that's a lot closer than I thought--only five tiles between the two cities. Still, it's only about half the distance between the cities, and if B4ndit doesn't suspect anything, I should be able to get close enough before he realizes the real threat. Still, I feel like I want more info (notably double-checking his capital to see if he has fishing/netted the clams yet), so I made my first diplo offer of the game!


Yes, I offered B4ndit open borders. "But wait!" you may ask, "you can see B4ndit's capital (and second city) if you move your scout SW!" I thought about that, and this is the problem with that:


This was taken after I ended turn, and it clearly shows that the borders of all the capital cities will expand at end of turn, which would block off my path through B4ndit's territory. If B4ndit declines my offer, I'll just double-back around to catch glimpses of Edirne as I approach from the southern end. I'm pretty sure declaring war just to scout isn't anywhere close to worth it, especially when it could broadcast my true intentions and/or force me to either stay at war for the whole time or accept a 10 turn peace treaty, delaying my attack.
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T25 C&D:
Another new screen to start us off--let's check the espionage screen!


I want to get B4ndit's graphs as soon as possible, preferably before I build my settler and start moving it directly towards him. As a reminder, the settler will finish end of T29, so I want graphs around then. As such, I swapped from a 3/1 distribution of my 4 espionage points between B4ndit/eastway (which started as soon as I met B4ndit) last turn to a 4/0 distribution last turn, which means I'll get to 30 points exactly when I would start moving the settler--of course, I think it will take an extra turn or two due to B4ndit's spending against me, but I'll get them before I settle--and if I really think I need the graphs (say, there's a 6k increase I need to check), a 10% espionage slider for a turn should get me over the hump by the end of T29.

Now to top cities and demos, as normal:




Starting with the easy part, we have the score changes--B4ndit grew Istanbul to size 3 (giving him 5 total pop), and eastway discovered a tech (confirmed to be a non-soldier tech by his graphs). Next is the soldier count--4k increase, and the max increased by 2k. We know these must be unit builds, and my assumption is that AT built a warrior and then either eastway or B4ndit built a warrior--this is why I want B4ndit's graphs!!!

Now to GNP and--holy crap 37! Along with last turn's 28, these are really large GNP values. Let's start with last turns 28 (presumably before B4ndit grew onto the gems)
28=16 (base) +1 (riverside farm) +1 (Edirne city square) +4 (oasis) +4 (floodplains hamlet) + 3 (arrow: 0.2*19)
Now to the 37 this turn:
37=16 (base) +10 (tiles above) +7 (gems) +5 (arrow: 0.2*26)

Wait--is the culture from the Hindu capital not counting towards GNP? Does GNP only count culture from buildings? When you consider that the Hindu culture isn't inflating the total, it's even more scary eek

Still, if I'm going to check this far, I might as well use the fact that it's an arrow tech to my advantage--on one hand we know B4ndit's not researching Fishing (which we can probably assume he doesn't have yet since he isn't working the clams), but more importantly he's not researching Hunting. It's only one arrow bonus (thank goodness), and there's no known tech bonus, which leads to only 4 possible choices: Animal Husbandry, Iron Working, Priesthood, and Meditation. Obviously I'd rather the tech be on the religious side of the spectrum (please build the Oracle for me, even if I won't get the tech smile ), but I'd assume he's researching AH--that would mean he would have to hook up horses (which I assume won't be at the city of insane tile yields or at the capital) and build a chariot, even if it could get to the city quickly. Of course, I'll know where horses are in a couple turns, so I can confirm B4ndit can't spoil my plans in that way.
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T26 Report and C&D:
Not that much today--but first, something I missed yesterday in the excitement of a TWO TURN DAY!:
the only person who gets that joke won't be able to read it for many months tongue


Yes, I have two neighbors who decided to eschew protecting themselves in favor of a religion tongue
This means I'll have to update my tech standings once I get to the C&D section--but first we have your well-known duo of boring and interesting, the capital and scout move pictures!


I'm actually probably overselling the boringness of the capital picture today--Rome itself is still boring (other than the axe ready to capture Edirne moving closer), but the farm finished at Antium, with the worker planning on chopping one or two of the northern forests as described before. Now to the scout move:


First of all, yes I screwed up on the culture expansion for B4ndit--I forgot he hasn't revolted to slavery yet, and thus expanded borders a turn early. Still, that means there's an extra space between the cities, although the road B4ndit's building is making that moot for the most part--and if you didn't realize by now, B4ndit did accept the open borders agreement smile
Other than the road, the most important part I've seen is confirmation that B4ndit did build a warrior out of Edirne--and he's moving it back towards Istanbul for some reason? I'll be able to check Edirne once I double back, and hopefully he decides to accelerate development by building a worker out of Edirne smile

As the evidence of B4ndit not realizing the real threat to Edirne rises, I need to start wondering if I can actually keep the city. Part of that is watching the soldier stats--I know I can keep it if I don't see any axes coming out of the capital and he still hasn't revolted to Slavery, and I also have the second axe coming--the one catch is that if I put two axes into Edirne I can't put any into my third city, which obviously isn't ideal wink

After that bit of war discussion, now onto demos!


Only score increase this turn comes from eastway: 7 points from a pop point (confirmed to be the second city from religion/top cities/eastway's diplo screen), and 6 points from...another tech? That must be Priesthood, right? I don't think he could conceivably 1-turn any other tech, right? Either way, that's a good transition into new pop and tech rankings (since I still don't have a google doc yet tongue)
Base score for everyone (land+wonder-1): 65
Population Points:
AT: 5 population (Capital=4, Second=1)
B4ndit: 5 population (Istanbul=3, Edirne=2)
Cheater Hater: 3 population (Rome=2, Antium=1)
Twinkletoes: 3 population (Capital=2, Second=1)
eastway: 3 population (Annuminas=2, Brithombar=1)
Techs:
AT: 7 techs (Agriculture, Mining, Bronze Working, Wheel, Fishing?, Pottery?, ?)
B4ndit: 7 techs (Agriculture, Wheel, Mining, Bronze Working, Mysticism, Polytheism, Fishing/Pottery/?)
Cheater Hater: 7 techs (Fishing, Mining, Bronze Working, Agriculture, Wheel, Pottery, Writing)
Twinkletoes: 7 techs (Agriculture, Wheel, Mining, Bronze Working, Pottery, Fishing, ?)
eastway: 8 techs (Fishing, Mining, Bronze Working, Wheel/Animal Husbandry, Agriculture, Mysticism, Meditation, Priesthood?)

I have no idea what eastway's even planning to Oracle--the "default" choice is generally Metal Casting, but even if we assume eastway researched Wheel, he still needs Pottery to go that direction. There's also Monarchy I guess (not that I would know anything about unreasonably early Monarchy wink ), and if he went with AH he could Oracle Horseback Riding? I don't know how strong each of those Oracle targets are--and that's part of the reason I didn't try for it wink

Other than that, there's not much going on in the demos department--except that even with the gems I'm still below the rival average frown
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T27 Report:
To start with, here's what we were greeted with when I loaded up the turn:


I did accept, though I later found out that I maybe shouldn't have...


Wow, eastway's already been all the way around the map? I meant to mention that the minimap shows we've already explored a lot of the map and were about to go full-circle ourselves east to west, but apparently eastway has done so north to south (excluding our territory).

Other than that, the chop finished, which will overflow into the settler, allowing me to 2-pop whip right away. I also moved the other worker onto the forest to start yet another chop to help finish the library. Antium also grew to size 2 at the end of last turn--thanks rice smile

Now moving to the scout move as always:


Apparently B4ndit does have Fishing, and has had it for a while--now we know his techs for certain--or at least we would if he didn't discover another tech this turn wink
We also know he somehow got 2 workers out, along with the settler and the workboat, all without slavery--then again he didn't slow himself down with any warriors tongue

Lots of C&D stuff coming now that we can see B4ndit's capital, though the post itself will probably be delayed a bit--I still plan to get it done tonight, but not right after the report like it has been recently smile
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T27 C&D:
To start with, we have the top cities:


Not much change here, other than eastway's capital growing. Now to demos:


The score changes here aren't the clearest. B4ndit and eastway's are easy (Annuminas grew, and B4ndit researched a tech), but Twinkletoes somehow scored 20 points without growing his capital. The most I can get is 19--12 from a classical tech and 7 from the second city growing. Actually, it could be a third city from Twinkletoes--we can calculate that from population numbers:
City worth:
Size 1=1k
Size 2=6k
Size 3=21k
Size 4=48k
Now for the rival total:
Average=27750, Total=27750*4=111k
Now for what we know from each opponent:
B4ndit: 2+3=6k+21k=27k
AT: 4+1=48k+1k=49k
eastway: 3+1=21k+1k=22k
Twinkletoes: 2+2=6k+6k=12k
Total=27k+49K+22K+12k=110k
Yeah, there's exactly 1k missing
Yes, Twinkletoes has a third city out there--it explains why his capital is behind on growth at least smile

Next, we have soldier points--another 4k increase, although 2k came from eastway and Twinkletoes passing 4 pop. Since the min is 18k, that last 2k is Twinkletoes either building a warrior or (more likely) researching a 2k tech, either Hunting or (more likely) AH. As such, let's do updated power rankings!
Since I'm always looking for it, the updated power rankings as of T24:
AT: 22k (Mining+BW+(Wheel)+3 Warriors+4 pop)
eastway: 18k (Mining+BW+(Wheel)+Warrior+4 pop)
B4ndit: 18k (Mining+BW+Wheel+Warrrior+4 pop)
Twinkletoes: 18k (Mining+BW+Wheel+AH/Hunting+4 pop)

With all that information, let's get updated pop/tech ranking!
Base score for everyone (land+wonder-1): 65
Population Points:
AT: 5 population (Capital=4, Second=1)
B4ndit: 5 population (Istanbul=3, Edirne=2)
Cheater Hater: 5 population (Rome=3, Antium=2)
Twinkletoes: 5 population (Capital=2, Second=2, Third=1)
eastway: 4 population (Annuminas=3, Brithombar=1)
Techs:
AT: 7 techs (Agriculture, Mining, Bronze Working, Wheel, Fishing?, Pottery?, ?)
B4ndit: 8 techs (Agriculture, Wheel, Mining, Bronze Working, Mysticism, Polytheism, Fishing, Priesthood/?)
Cheater Hater: 7 techs (Fishing, Mining, Bronze Working, Agriculture, Wheel, Pottery, Writing)
Twinkletoes: 8 techs (Agriculture, Wheel, Mining, Bronze Working, Pottery, Fishing, Hunting/AH, ?)
eastway: 8 techs (Fishing, Mining, Bronze Working, Wheel/Animal Husbandry, Agriculture, Mysticism, Meditation, Priesthood?)

It's weird--I feel like I'm getting to know the numbers better if I rewrite them every single turn--maybe once the game gets more complicated I'll want them in a Google Doc, but by that time I'll have all the graphs and Alphabet, and the main thing that's important is exact soldier numbers--we'll see smile
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T28 Report and C&D:
So Animal Husbandry has come in, and the question is, where are the horses?


So they're in the third ring--that certainly makes city 10 more attractive smile
With the discovery of horses, there a change of plans for Worker 2: he's going to road to and hook up the horses (you can't see it since he's hidden by the axe in that shot, but that's what he's doing). I've also started the chops in Antium and continued the march of the axes. And don't worry about that unhappiness in the capital--the whip anger disappears at end of turn, and even if it didn't, I'm whipping the settler next turn anyway wink

In case you're wondering, third ring horses appears to be standard, as shown in the daily look at B4ndit (though I can't see eastway's horses yet):


Seems like standard worker actions, though there's a focus on roading rather than hooking thing up it seems like--though if I was gifted with Edirne I wouldn't focus on hooking it up either most likely (though that plains gold is sad frown )

But wait, is that a warrior? Let's take a closer look at the scout move:


Wow, that is relatively close--maybe I should get an axe in Antium sooner rather than later, especially with war imminent. Hopefully what will happen is that I'll be able to take Edirne, and then I'll probably just try to get peace, to be honest, then I won't have to worry about it for a bit smile
But wait, that's another Ottoman warrior! My power rankings don't have room for that warrior, and it can't be the one I saw two turns ago, so something must be wrong in my C&D!!!

Speaking of C&D, before we cover that crisis, today's demos:


Not much in score this time--eastway grew his second city, and AT researched a tech.

Now to soldiers--2k increase this turn from AT, the soldier leader--looks like AT researched Hunting or AH, rather than building a 4th Warrior wink
Actually, looking at the soldier counts, I just miscounted--there's an extra 2k I forgot to add sometime, which is B4ndit's second warrior. Now for the repost of the information!
Soldier Points:
AT: 24k (Mining+BW+Wheel+Hunting/AH+3 Warriors+4 pop)
eastway: 18k (Mining+BW+(Wheel)+Warrior+4 pop)
B4ndit: 20k (Mining+BW+Wheel+2 Warriors+4 pop)
Twinkletoes: 18k (Mining+BW+Wheel+AH/Hunting+4 pop)

Score-based:
Base score for everyone (land+wonder-1): 65
Population Points:
AT: 5 population (Capital=4, Second=1)
B4ndit: 5 population (Istanbul=3, Edirne=2)
Cheater Hater: 5 population (Rome=3, Antium=2)
Twinkletoes: 5 population (Capital=2, Second=2, Third=1)
eastway: 5 population (Annuminas=3, Brithombar=2)
Techs:
AT: 7 techs (Agriculture, Mining, Bronze Working, Wheel, Fishing, Pottery?, AH/Hunting, ?)
B4ndit: 8 techs (Agriculture, Wheel, Mining, Bronze Working, Mysticism, Polytheism, Fishing, Priesthood/?)
Cheater Hater: 7 techs (Fishing, Mining, Bronze Working, Agriculture, Wheel, Pottery, Writing)
Twinkletoes: 8 techs (Agriculture, Wheel, Mining, Bronze Working, Pottery, Fishing, Hunting/AH, ?)
eastway: 8 techs (Fishing, Mining, Bronze Working, Wheel/Animal Husbandry, Agriculture, Mysticism, Meditation, Priesthood?)

Finally, a bit of housekeeping: I'm starting to use folders on my Dropbox to organize my numerous pictures, and I'm gradually going back and moving my old pictures, and reediting my old reports to link to the new locations--if there are broken links in my earlier updates please let me know!
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T29 Report and C&D:
Honestly, not much happened this turn--I whipped, and I'm doubling back with my scout, and that's about it tongue




The new warrior we saw is coming back towards the capital, and I'm not quite sure what the workers are doing--there's a worker where my scout is sitting; is B4ndit putting a 3rd city down there?

On to demos, but this is more interesting stuff:


Before we start, a moment of silence for my good demos, killed by the whip...tongue

Now to analysis! Twinkletoes gained 14 points from 2 pop increases (the capital and one of the other two cities), and eastway gained 20 points from a tech and 2 pop increases (the capital, as well as founding the city of Calembel).

Next we have soldier points--4k total increase; 1k from Twinkletoe's pop increase, 1k from eastway's pop increase, and 2k unknown--but we have more evidence to admit:


If you compare the jump from 2 turns ago (which we know is 1k from a pop increase) and the jump from this turn, you can see that this jump is larger than 1k, which points to eastway's tech being either Hunting or AH.

Before rankings, a bit of math to determine if Twinkletoes's second or third city grew:
Last Turn Total Pop: 26750*4=107k
This Turn Total Pop--wait, last turn was less than 2 turns ago?
Okay, something's wrong here--the total pop last turn is less than 2 turns ago. Since we didn't see any score decreases, this smells like a 1-pop whip of a big city combined with a growth of a small city--I'll work on this later tongue
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