Politics Discussion Thread (Heated Arguing Warning)

[Krill]

Depends on the EU. It looks like the plan to get the withdrawal agreement through is dead unless they extend article 50, but they have to essentially phrase it as a quid pro quo, and it will be understood as such by the UK electorate and Parliament: vote until you get it right.

The EU has no ability to force a referendum (because the question on a referendum has to be agreed by Parliament). If the only theoretical options are No deal, withdrawal agreement or remain in the EU, then how does the EU manage that? They still can't know the outcome, and they might not want to risk No deal happening later on. AND there is the cost of an extension: if a referendum can't be held until September/October, the UK has to take part in EU elections, and the financial cost would be considerable. Trying to stick the UK with that bill and the uncertainty is never going to fly with the UK electorate: Remainers will be pissed off at the cost, and Leavers are pissed off at not leaving.

So the question as I see it, is does the EU cave on something to get the withdrawal agreement through, even if it is Parliament that does say what they want? It's something the EU has to give, and f not, then I don't see why they would extend Article 50. So the next question is how does the UK parliament react? When faced with the imminent No deal, a withdrawal agreement which has been voted down twice and a unilateral revocation, what do they do? Given that nothing can happen until the 26/3/19 anyway on the EU side, I reckon they keep up the public message of "This far, and no further" and it's the UK parliament that will have to face that decision.

And this is pretty much what has been predicted ever since the Supreme Court stated that Parliament had to pass legislation to leave the EU.

[Mr. Cairo]

So "Meaningful Vote" number 3 will be coming up. TM trying to force the ERG and DUP to support her deal by threatening a long extension (until after the EU elections) if her deal fails yet again. It wont work (probably) especially since so many ERG MPs are angry that ministers were apparently told they were allowed to abstain despite a 3-line whip. So when that fails she'll go to the EU and ask for a fairly long extension.

EU will probably not actually provide a long extension, for the reasons others have discussed above, so I think that TM will try for a fourth time, threatening the ERG and DUP with unilateral revocation of Article 50 (with no plans to try Brexit again) as the only way to avoid no-deal. But I think enough Brexiters (and possibly the DUP?) would rather remain than pass TM's deal.

Another option is for May to give up on the ERG and work with Corbyn to set up a Norway-style deal with the EU (which is essentially what Corbyn's proposals are, no free movement fairy-tales notwithstanding) and rely on Labour to pass it. The EU might well provide an extension if the purpose is to negotiate a deal whereby the UK stays in the common market. That would still be problematic in Westminster since all the Brexiter Tories would oppose it, and a majority of Labour MPs would rather just stay in the EU. So it would depend on how effective the Tory & Labour whips are (which they aren't these days).

A final possibility I can see is TM heading towards no-deal but refusing to revoke A50. In which case enough Tory remainers might be willing to support a no-confidence motion to bring down the gov't and prop up a Corbyn led gov't if he promises to only revoke A50 then hold an election. Unless the rules in the UK have changed and a no-confidence motion automatically leads to an election instead of another party being given the opportunity to get the confidence of the house.

Edit: apparently some EU sources are saying that if TM comes asking for an extension, they'll offer a 4-year one. If TM is willing to accept, does it then still have to pass in the House of Commons? Or can she agree on an extension with the EU by herself?

[Krill]

It has to go through parliament to amend the current act that states we leave on 29th march. So a stupidly long extension is the same as no extension.

[MJW (ya that one)]

I'm leaning toward the EU extending forever, so it's only a matter of time when Corbyn wins and ether non-Brexit Brexits or Revokes. If ECJ didn't make dumb ruling then it would depend if Corbyn bails out May or causes a crash out for political gain. It depends if Corbyn wants to win a GE or have a better Brexit (from his view Remain>Norway>May deal>Crashing Out). It would take no effort for him to switch because of IRA.

Mr. Cario, why do you think ERG likes remain better? I'm guessing the ERG doesn't like the May deal because it leaves UK too connected to EU, so the EU will still be able to bully and get what they want anyway, it so ERG has nothing to lose by going for broke.

[Krill]

Remain is better because it doesn't hand over sovereignty, it shares it. The withdrawal agreement has no mechanism to leave. That's the ERG and DUP thinking.

[Bacchus]

Corbyn wont win a GE, there is just no appetite for that, asecially now that he will tank in the north.

[Krill]

We are on course for full revocation, but I wonder what terms an extension will be on. Unless the length itself is the term...

[MJW (ya that one)]

Corbyn wont win a GE, there is just no appetite for that, asecially now that he will tank in the north.

When I mean forever I mean forever. Labour would try again with another leader in the next next GE.

[ipecac]

That's irrelevant. She had no control over this scenario.

She engineered this scenario where she has 'no control'.

We are on course for full revocation

So close to victory.

[Krill]

No she didn't. The courts did.