Some thoughts on what the future might look like.
I think we have 4 tiers right now.
1: Me, GJ and Haram.
I don't know specifically how well Haram is doing but it seems a reasonable bet. We're all in contention to win the game.
2: Fenndit and Dreylin.
Both doing very well, can certainly compete if things fall their way.
3: Borsche and Jowy
Solid empires but below average. They'll be tough to take out.
4: Scipio and Tsargon
Sorry guys, the game hasn't gone your way.
They're the best options for gaining more land.
How will people in the top two tiers look to expand further?
GJ
Should have all of his natural land given his city count. That's his core, and the two islands up to the jungle.
He could get some other small pieces:
-push further on the Fenndit island, that's unlikely.
-push Dreylin off his main island, possible but still difficult
-steal Tsargon's portion of Haram's island - that's certainly within his capabilities
Big pieces:
-Invade Jowy via land -> unlikely and I should be able to profit anyway if he does.
-Invade Borsche's island above him.
-Invade Tsargon below him
The last two are pretty good expansion vectors but an entire naval invasion is difficult. He's most likely to build up for a bit but he has to take one of these 3 options eventually.
Haram:
Should have his entire natural land.
Small stuff:
Tsargon's end of his island -> it's either him or GJ, would be more beneficial for Haram if he can swing it.
Scipio's end of Dreylin's island -> him vs Dreylin
Big Pieces:
Take Jowy's island -> seems most likely.
Navally invade Scipio to the south -> I have get this land before this becomes an option.
Invading GJ, Dreylin or Fenndit does not seem like a good idea.
Haram's options aren't great. Scipio might be the best one, so I need to get there first. If that happens he'll probably have to go for Jowy. Maybe that's when I try lift the rest of my island back?
TBS:
Missing 1-2 cities on my island to Jowy. Plus need resources there to defend.
Small stuff:
Those Jowy cities - they're currently way too much work.
Push past the jungle of Tsargon's island - considering it, 1 city would certainly be possible but might be tough to defend.
Push past the jungle on my island into Fenndit - By settling on the marble I've forced them into a pretty awkward dotmap decision but I don't think it's worth antagonising them here.
Big Stuff:
Scipio mainland - before Haram
Tsargon island - I want to end up with this in the end. But Borsche might also try this way. Hard to tell whether Borsche will stay weak in the long run.
Tsargon mainland - Could I get there before GJ/Dreylin? Might be difficult. At least if they do go that route, I should make sure I have enough forces on hand to take a good chunk.
Fenndit
Have all their natural lands.
Big stuff:
Settle Scipio's island for free ... - this has got to be their first goal and it's what their chances in this game are based on.
After that they'll have either Borsche or Jowy to invade. I guess I see a Jowy invasion as most likely. They'll take a while to get their extra land running, then Haram invades Jowy's island and hence they pile on the mainland.
Dreylin:
Has all his natural lands.
Small stuff:
Scipio's end of his island - again him vs Haram, he has more reason to get it.
Big stuff:
Then a land invasion of Tsargon.
Borsche:
Borsche has a pretty good geopolitical position and could get back in the game. He should aim to hold all his southern island from GJ and Jowy. Then steal over half of Scipio's island, while Fenndit gets the rest. Then either settle or invade Tsargon's island. Will he have the capabilities for that though?
Jowy
Jowy is pretty screwed by his neighbours. He's the only guy that can't get anything from Scipio and Tsargon. I think he'll be under too much pressure to succeed at any moves himself. He will probably take a swing at one of me, Borsche or Haram though. Got to make myself less appealing than the other two.
Going back to GJ for a minute. Looking at everything else I'm predicting, a mainland invasion of Jowy seems to make the most sense for him.
It'll be pretty interesting to see if the whole chain of logic from me attacking Scipio to dogpile on Jowy holds.