UK Politics Discussion Thread

[Krill]

Theoretically the EU could refuse to ratify without specific agreements on EU citizens rights, but that depends on how far they want to push it. At most they demand a promise and tie it to the free trade deal.

[MJW (ya that one)]

I see 3 options

1. BJ win Program Motion; Brexit with a deal. Will need a short extension to finish. If it wins by one vote I'm changing my avatar to Zac Goldsmith.
2. BJ loses Program Motion by a little. Short extension to see if it can get a over the finish line.
3. BJ loses Program Motion by a lot. GE time (Too late for Labour U-Turn to referendum). Extension (EU cannot U-Turn on this because they've said over and over that GE stops the clock). I guess now ERG on board Lib Dem will bleed off more votes. Tilt Tory election.

[Krill]

Well, all it takes for the WAB to fail now is 10 Labour MPs who voted for the second reading to not like what happens and it dies.

Now we wait to see if there will be an extension. Boris can't actually promise anything except there will be amendments voted on, or a referendum, or a GE (well, can't promise the Referendum but it would likely pass).

Tory majority of 30? Even with Brexit party slagging off the WAB, how would they not get a majority?

[MJW (ya that one)]

EU has nothing to lose by offering extension. 99%+

[Krill]

Well they lose opportunity cost but that's about it.

Edit: Looks like they will offer it according to Tusk

[darrelljs]

They lose the PR battle is what they lose. Although I'm not sure why they care given England won't be a member state anymore.

Darrell

[MJW (ya that one)]

Jon Worth says that WAB would lose by 1 vote but it won't be close because the amendment process would cause BJ to lose more votes. GE time!

[suboptimal]

Krill, what's your sense of the Scottish and Welsh first ministers' statement regarding Parliament not ignoring the devolved governments' assent/Sewel convention? BJ seems to be intent on ignoring that while the actual WAB states that they'll need legislative consent.

[Krill]

Where does the WAB state consent from devolved parliament's are necessary for the implementation of the bill?

[suboptimal]

Where does the WAB state consent from devolved parliament's are necessary for the implementation of the bill?

It came up during PMQ's today and the first ministers referenced this in their joint statement to the EU.  My understanding from the reporting is that there are specific items listed in the explanatory document stated to require LCM's as they involve devolved matters.  I'm not currently at a computer I can go find the actual references but can do so in a few hours.