UK Politics Discussion Thread

[GeneralKilCavalry]

I wonder if this election will be won by the leader who makes the least gaffes.

Also, will the SNP gain seats? They could be a very, very large stumbling block if SNP+LD stop Labour getting a majority as both are campaigning on a hard remain and a Labour minority government is campaigning on a referendum and remain.

What happens if LD finish second? Corbyn would almost certainly be gone. Swinson PM with a Lab/SNP coalition to Remain?

Not happening. LD might even lose seats this election.

The only way something approaching this is happens is if Brexit party vote eats so many Tory votes and some labour voters jump to LD due to definite remain, and even then...

Polls are going to shift drastically in the coming weeks, just as they did last time. Lib dems may pick up some tory seats in London, but that's about it. Lib Dems have been too cozy with the tories just recently (accepting a former tory mp, attacking labour heavily), and the 2010 pact is fresh enough in memory. I foresee lots of talk about tactical voting that will amount to little.

But who knows, anything really may happen. Brexit party as you said is a wildcard here.

[MJW (ya that one)]

CONs have 10% lead over Labour when they had a 2.4% last election... I think the main problem for Labour is that UKIP bleed off voters in a 3:1 ratio. With Tory going for Brexit that raito becomes a 2:1 bleedoff. So the electoral impact of Brexit Party is you divide by 3 and add it to labour. They are polling around 10% so that's a plus 4% for Labour which is not enough to counter the lib dem bleedoff and BJ>Corbyn. SNP would always caucus with labour (after getting bribed) but that's also more than countered by NI and too many remain voters in london. However, Brexit party hasn't really began to campaign yet. I feel the election is a tossup but if I had to guess I would say tory majority.

[Krill]

It depends what Farage wants to do as well. He is threatening the Tories but his game plan is to annihilate Labour. If he purposely accepts the WAB they could pull the candidates from Tory seats, but Farage will not accept that. But will he only run candidates against Tory candidates that lean remain in leave leaning seats? He could cause a Tory minority.

[GeneralKilCavalry]

Brexit was, in the medium-term, a genius play by the Tories to make any election about the bogus issue of the EU, thereby distracting people from NHS cuts, austerity - what actually matters. It’s disgusting but brilliant politically.

Also looks like BoJo and Farage aren’t making any sort of pact.

[MJW (ya that one)]

Downing Street says they won't extend talks past 2020. I'm pretty sure that the DUP will realize that Labour+Remain parties will go for a loaded second referendum if they gain control. So it's between remain and BJ's deal if they hold the balance of power. The allure of crash out if negotiations fail, causing a hard border, and they are screwed unless something happens due to demographics will make them prop up BJ and his deal. So it's Tory & DUP vs everyone else. At this point I'm pretty sure Brexit will get 0 seats and Farage is just running to split the leave vote so remain happens so he can be a MEP/Brexit consultant for the rest of his life. BJ would lose more votes if he got DUP on his side before this election but after he should not lose any votes because of the deselections. If you do this to the worst seat projection for the CONs you get a 22 seat majority. The best gives 156. This could change; remember May's implosion. If DUP holds the balance of power; Tory will be able to extort Labour rebels for the further negotiations because revoke is no longer possible. He wouldn't need DUP support anymore because DUP will never prop up labour. So DUP+Tory is almost as good as Tory. So I'm going to refer to this election as Team Leave (DUP+Tory, Brexit should get no seats) vs Team Remain (everyone else). I'm changing my prediction from tilt tory majority to Lean Leave Majority.

[Charriu]

After the LibDems, Greens and others did this move, now Farage and the Brexit Party do it too. (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/201...arage-says)

It's becoming more and more clear that the voting system in the UK needs a reform.

[Krill]

Tory voters will swap to Lib Dems, so it'll be interesting if any of the current Tory seats go to LD. TBH, this kinda helps the Lib Dems: it cannabalizes Labour and Tory votes, which theoretically could mean that some Labour seats swap to LD.

[Mr. Cairo]

It also doesn't help the Tories win the Labour seats they're targeting, by splitting the leave vote there. I think the Lib Dem and Green alliance will have more of an impact, potentially taking seats from the tories in the south of England.

[MJW (ya that one)]

   

[Krill]

Why would Farage want the Tories to have a majority?