UK Politics Discussion Thread

[GeneralKilCavalry]

If Tories win this Labour will ditch Corbyn and will no longer be able to hid their contempt for the working class and become a left-wing party. So it would be two left wing parties (social issues) which would hand the Tories another easy win. But then the lib dems would implode because they will be the left party who doesn't win any seats and spoils Labour. This would cause a two-party system where Tories sometimes have to give the DUP a magic money tree to get over the finish line and where Labour always has to give SNP a magic money tree.

Speaking about SNP if Boris is smart he'll offer a second indyreferendum to SNP ASAP and campgin for Union. If he wins he wins. If he loses he gets rid of SNP and wins.

Genuinely confused what you mean here to the point of "is this a typo?".

Yeah, if tories win, there's a good chance Corbyn will be forced to step down by the Blairites, but that means Labour will return to its state 5-10 years ago: a typical, neoliberal, centrist party, not a "left-wing party", which is what Corbyn is trying to make Labour once again.

Following the election intensely from the US...

[MJW (ya that one)]

There's a couple of labour leavers but they should be countered by the remain vote being suppressed more because it's a election. CONs like voting more so they get more useless votes in seats where they have no chance and Labour has a lot more "solid" seats. So Brexit Party + CONs + DUP should be a good proxy on remain vs leave.

[GeneralKilCavalry]

Probably not, every Tory standing in this election is standing on a manifesto to pass Boris' deal, and Boris has managed to get rid of every Tory MP who was being difficult with him earlier parliamentary shenanigans. The only thing that might throw a spanner in the works is the potential for Tory MPs to vote down the deal if there is still the potential no deal scenario that occurs if there is no free time are agreement at the end of the transition period. Still, I think that every Tory MP toes the party line and passes that deal so long as the Tories have a majority of 2. A majority of 1 would be enough...but some fuck up would happen. Majority of 5 and it's going to pass.

And on top of that, Labour still has a couple of Brexit-supporting MP's standing, no? That'll push them over the top.

Also, any clue on what's happening in NI? Will DUP/SF/Alliance lose/gain?

[MJW (ya that one)]

If Tories win this Labour will ditch Corbyn and will no longer be able to hid their contempt for the working class and become a left-wing party. So it would be two left wing parties (social issues) which would hand the Tories another easy win. But then the lib dems would implode because they will be the left party who doesn't win any seats and spoils Labour. This would cause a two-party system where Tories sometimes have to give the DUP a magic money tree to get over the finish line and where Labour always has to give SNP a magic money tree.

Speaking about SNP if Boris is smart he'll offer a second indyreferendum to SNP ASAP and campgin for Union. If he wins he wins. If he loses he gets rid of SNP and wins.

Genuinely confused what you mean here to the point of "is this a typo?".

Yeah, if tories win, there's a good chance Corbyn will be forced to step down by the Blairites, but that means Labour will return to its state 5-10 years ago: a typical, neoliberal, centrist party, not a "left-wing party", which is what Corbyn is trying to make Labour once again.

Following the election intensely from the US...

Corbyn is more liberal in the fiscal sense but that's not what I'm talking about. He'll be replaced by someone with no connection to the working class, more moderate fiscally and more left socially. To similar to lib dems for both parties to continue existing.

[Mr. Cairo]

If Tories win this Labour will ditch Corbyn and will no longer be able to hid their contempt for the working class and become a left-wing party. So it would be two left wing parties (social issues) which would hand the Tories another easy win. But then the lib dems would implode because they will be the left party who doesn't win any seats and spoils Labour. This would cause a two-party system where Tories sometimes have to give the DUP a magic money tree to get over the finish line and where Labour always has to give SNP a magic money tree.

Speaking about SNP if Boris is smart he'll offer a second indyreferendum to SNP ASAP and campgin for Union. If he wins he wins. If he loses he gets rid of SNP and wins.

Genuinely confused what you mean here to the point of "is this a typo?".

Yeah, if tories win, there's a good chance Corbyn will be forced to step down by the Blairites, but that means Labour will return to its state 5-10 years ago: a typical, neoliberal, centrist party, not a "left-wing party", which is what Corbyn is trying to make Labour once again.

Following the election intensely from the US...

Corbyn is more liberal in the fiscal sense but that's not what I'm talking about. He'll be replaced by someone with no connection to the working class, more moderate fiscally and more left socially. To similar to lib dems for both parties to continue existing.

Momentum still has the ability to decide who wins a Labour leadership race, and they'll pick someone very much like Corbyn, but younger, and without the baggage. Labour policies are popular, and they'll not just abandon them because their leader wasn't.

[Krill]

4 years, 2 elections, if Corbyn doesn't win now it'll be 14 years of Tory rule and the world will be a different place. But there will still be a faction that wants to rejoin the EU, and another, growing faction that will loathe the tuition fee argument that will act against Labour. At that point it will not being Labour policy's that win an election,but Tory policies that lose one.

[MJW (ya that one)]

Looked at YouGov MRP and as expected the levels are now inverted level 1 & 2 cons have the lead while 3/4+ labour has the lead. It's also obvious lib dems are spoiling labour. 20 con remainers, 20 labour leavers, 60 con leavers but only 40 labour remainers with a big bump to lib dems. It's Corbyn's fault for not compacting with lib dems after brexit stood down, it should be even worse because Jo Swinson sucks. Lib Dems standing down in tory-labour marginals isn't a option because it causes your polling to crash and you get 0 seats like Brexit Party. 100% Corbyn's fault.

[darrelljs]

Pulling figures out of my arse: Tory majority of 5.

For every seat the Tories gain over this I'll give Darrell a compliment.

Well now I'm conflicted.

Darrell

[GeneralKilCavalry]

One thing to note. The polls may really be overestimating the tory lead.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cu...%20(5).pdf

Here's the yougov methodology.
Skip to page 18, and compare that to parliament's report on voting by age.
https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/...fullreport

There's an underestimation of the youth vote, and it's significant. Other data suggests that the youth vote will tilt slightly more tory, while the older (70+) vote will not, instead with both tory and labour leeching off to brexit/libdem, tory vote moreso. Overall however, with a 30% greater youth registration this time around, there's bound to be at least a 3-5% larger youth turnout than in 2017. If there is a 11-12% difference in the under 35 vote compared to polling analysis, it may yield a 2% shift for labour.

Finally, a figure on page 48 shows that labour is bleeding many votes in staunchly labour constituencies (think liverpool), but not really as many i marginal constituencies, in a significant fashion. This is likely what is accounting for much of the lib dem vote and some of the tory increase, so first past the post may not be as disfavorable for labour this time around.

Things may not be as clear cut as they seem, and a surprise result will not surprise me too much.

Edit: Also, not a lot of talk about the SNP having a chance to pick up a few tory seats. Nor is there much about Northern Ireland.

[Krill]

The NI vote is irrelevant, not a single party there is going to vote for leave, even the DUP, as they will not vote for Boris' deal.

Well, maybe if any SF seats go to someone who will turn up, that's one more vote Boris needs on the day.