Turn 162, Part 1
I didn't want to make this decision late at night, so I took a ton of screenshots and we're going to haggle it out in this post.
Before that, we played nice with GermanJoey. Maybe I'm making a friend; maybe I'm making a bad deal; maybe both?
The happy for happy trade is superfluous for me. I don't have any city even near the happy cap right now. And the gold trade is a return at a rate somewhere slightly north of 1% so it isn't all that great either. Well, hopefully it pays dividends in how Joey uses it in slowing down the remainder of the world.
Later on I'm going to need to reevaluate my trades; and maybe having some Tier 2 or Tier 3 civs to trade with will help keep options for trading without helping a competitor. But as the smaller civs get gobbled up that will be harder and harder to do.
I finished my caravel in Strand and got my first looks at hte island to my southeast:
Odds I beat both Old Harry and dtay to that island: very slim.
Enough window dressing; let's get to the meat
Something else to keep in mind; here's the cultural borders if I do capture the city:
I'm guessing that if I attack with the knights against Sieteh I'm going to lose 3 knights to take the city, and I'm going to strand another 3 on the tile N of the city as they finish off units and stay in place. That will leave me 4 knights & 1 chariot left to move into the city, along with the main stack of 1 knight, 2 war elephants, 1 pike, 5 CKNs, 6 swords, and 7 catapults. A total of 26 units. I could potentially pull a few more out of Geidi since it will be more secure.
Cyneheard will have 8 knights, 2 war chariots, 1 regular chariot (!?!?), 3 macemen, 1 spear, and 3 catapults (assuming the longbows stay in the capital). Need to assume he'll be able to upgrade all 3 of those mounted units to knights next turn, giving him 11 knights plus 1 for moving units forward.
I'm not so worried about him trying to clean up my knights outside the captured city; that is going straight into the teeth of my attack. I'm worried more about him moving north with the catapults and knights and taking Caladan back and then being able to move against my core(!!!). Or that he may have time to move against Caladan and then return with everything back to the capital thanks to the movement advantages of the defender. Ugh, that's why attacking sucks in Civ4 so much. You're always on the backfoot with mobility; you have to have overwhelming numbers to really accomplish anything. So the units in Caladan are stuck in Caladan to prevent him from getting that back for free.
The units that take Sieteh will then take 3 turns to get to the capital, assuming I just move straight up: 163 & 164 to move against the capital, and 165 to attack. Thankfully due to the positioning of the cities he can only attack straight into Sieteh with his knights; the 1-movers will have to go through my stack; plus, any knights that do attack are going to be stuck outside the city having expended their movement point to attack.
Ideally I'd like to have 5 or 6 good defenders left behind in Sieteh; not enough to prevent him from taking it if he used all his knights, but enough to prevent him from committing those forces. But I'm a little short; committing that kind of defense would mean no anti-knight units for my main stack. But I still will have my knights; I don't think he'll attack out to mop up my knights after attacking Sieteh because that would leave his knights available for retaliation, and 1-for-1 trades help me more than him.
Okay, I think I've decided. I'm going to attack and capture the city.