[SPOILERS PB71]Krill: By the numbers, when the walls fell (on everyone else)

[Krill]

I know lurkers are not supposed to ask sequence questions, so I'm going to put this here:

Parthenon eot154
Great Library eot154
Shwedagon Paya eot164
Monarchy (indicative) eot148
Feudalism (indicative) eot157
Code of Laws (indicative) eot160
Civil Service (indicative) eot170
Guilds (indicative) eot180(?)

This is just a best guess, and it's probably wrong, but I wonder: on a straight beeline I believe Guilds would come eot168-170 or so. I wonder what the tech paths look like for everyone else, and the timings, but I come to one conclusion: I do not need any of these techs at this point, so there is nothing stopping me from saving gold for the next 20 turns and watching. I like not having to make a decision, but it also helps safe guard anyone trying to steal away Music.

Honestly I wonder if Pindicator will take the run to Engineering, same for Commodore. Thoth is sticking with Feud (probably the best choice for Commodore frankly, cheaper than MC and Engineering as he has Monarchy).

I know I can trigger a GA in 29 turns without any wonders or specialist use (with the wonders it's closer to 24 turns). Those turns above are without wealth builds, but I have nothing to build but units and monasteries in several cities (especially now Pindi lucked into the Jewish holy city in Staunton the jammy bastard). I wonder if I need to bite the bullet and speed up the first GA, and push out the 400 and 500gpp in the golden age (hint, can't get the 500 in a GA without caste, and don't have enough food with caste to make it work without Parth. With Parth I can get pretty close. The 400 point is awkward because Pear needs to build the NE but could do that in the GA, but then afterwards it will accrue 18gpp with NE, 22 with Parth and no food or specialist use, so probably better to use Rhubarb as teh 400 point and finish up with the 500 point from Pear and Apple clears up with a GS for the 600 point).

I dislike the classical era GA but in this instance think I will need to do it, and it does open up the opportunity to get into Serfdom at the start and Bureau at the end, and I can probably mess around with Pear to see how I can make it work better for timings.

The Music Artist would solve some issues but the cost of getting to Music (ideally with Drama) essentially eats all the GA commerce and more. Sistine would be great to build but Rhubarb needs to build monasteries (and a theatre if I go that way but it helps manage some gpp issues).

The game feels like it has slowed down significantly, but the resources we can accrue and stockpile without the others noticing (like gpp and effective beakers in a large gold stockpile). Units, not so much: the upkeep costs are high and the units all of us can build now will not matter except in numbers, and my power lead will stop sane players from stacking up (thankfully superdeath has gone). Population though, and forges, and finish the second GA in Police State/Bureau/Slavery/Merc/Theo is a threat the others need to respect. Or use Rep and Serfdom and try to tech onward whilst the rest flounder? I can make that call later.

More to ponder.

[Krill]

Turn 145







17 real hitters plus 6 archers and a medic 3 scout, to defend against the HA doomstack attacking from the fog. I need to cover this with real units, and to be clear: right now I would struggle to defend given the approach over forests, but I would not lose a city unless attacked by Pindicator at the same time (Bing has nothing, and Yuri the same).




I can't even see catapult builds for anyone, so I just need to deal with unit positioning more than anything else.

But HE comes online on T147 and then I can decide if I want to slot in a colosseum before pushing out the defensive units to cover the south and reposition everything. I need to cover minimum 8 (probably 16) units out of the fog at Onoin and a stack moving in along forests. That means a few more cats to the south, real defensive units (Xbows) and, unfortunately, more cats for all areas. And all this is to defend what I can already see, when I'm already 100K over everyone else in strengh.

[Krill]

And because I'm feeling bored, have a few overview screenshots. Now I have OB with all relevant players I can finish off the map. It will probably take the next 12 turns though.














Edit: FFS, Pindi used his prophet from T126 for the Jewish shrine. I just can't catch a break with culture in Staunton.

[greenline]

When would you decide, hypothetically, that it is worth pulling the trigger on Police State as a perma civic?

(Makes me want to play a round with Justinian, honestly)

[Krill]

There are a lot of different ways to look at it.

Rep gives happy and beakers, and I no longer need the happy, and PS gives hammers and happy when in a prolonged war (when I would need the happy).

I only need hammers to build military units (infrastructure is good right now), so I want to swap when I have the necessary tech and resources to build a military. That's obviously once Guilds is in.

When can I swap? I will have to eat a turn of anarchy to revolt unless I swap in a golden age, and I am already planning to go Guilds> Banking, and time a GA to end shortly after finishing Banking. So the choice is to swap at the end of that GA.

For it to be a perma civic, then I would essentially have to either give up on tech (Rep is worth 25 bpt just from settled specialists at that point) go full on unit builds and end the game via effective conquest, or accept that PS gives me a roughly equivalent number of hammers (which I could therefore run some cities on wealth and come out roughly even). All told I would put that breakeven at around 150 base hpt for the point at which PS gains flexibility over Rep. I'm not that far from this position for hammer output, actually, but I am a long way from having the techs researched (5.5K beakers for Engineering, CS, Guilds, 6.5K if I want Music, 8.5K if I want Gunpowder).

[Krill]

Commodore is ready to build units:







Thats two whips and 30K of units pumped out. I suspect 6 cats, as he showed me one he built a few turns ago.

Thoth finished Feudalism this turn, so I await the vassalage revolt but he has a choice to make regarding final civics for Serfdom or Slavery, and only has three turns left of his GA (ends on his T152). Pindicator is actually completely broke and can't even get IW, even with the holy city.

The fun part of the map is this:




Commodore can invade Pindicator, but he gets annihilated by samurai, no cats needed, can't move before Guilds. Thoth has cats and HA, so there is no possible movement in that direction, without Guilds and an actual stack. He remains fixated on dealing with me.

Cherry is now ready to one turn military for the rest of the game if it has to. The market is unnecessary at this point, Theocracy enables 10XP/three promo units across the board once available, and it is at 50hpt. Rhubarb and Apple are five turns from finishing their wonders and can join into military builds (I don't really want more HA, but against Commodore with cats I do need more of them). Given my power lead, will it be enough? I'm not sure, but I doubt it if Commodore goes on a whipping spree because of the galley force.

All that said, I don't think anyone is playing the long game right now.

Thoth has almost fully grown cottages. Once his GA is over, I struggle to see a great opportunity for growth.





Yuris is not the pushover one would expect:




He has cats, WE and HA if he needs them. Well, he lacks horse but I've just gifted that to him.

I'm not sure if we are going to see Commodore try what he considers a hail mary invasion of me. I'm not sure what else he thinks he can do at this point?

[Krill]

So Thoth finished Feud T149 and then got a classical era tech T150.

The only two techs he could have researched are Aesthetics and MC. He could be making a play for Music, or just thing to push me to research it whilst he tries to get a head start on knights. I can't know. Even if he got another classical era tech next turn I can't know if it is Lit or MC.

He has two turns left of his GA. His GNP looks depressed because he is not selecting a tech after he ends turn so on turn roll he lacks a tech modifier, so his real GNP is actually much better than it looks, but he cannot get Music or Machinery by the end of the GA. Still, I am not convinced I would beat him to Guilds if I go to Music, definitely not if I tried for Music and CS. I'm pretty sure that I can get Drama and Music in 4 turns, and with wealth builds I definitely have the gold to sustain that pace.

I will probably see what he does next turn. As nice as the Great Artist is to have for me, it's actually a potential problem if Thoth attacks Yuri and then artist bombs towards the Mongolian holdings. Sistene is also a good build for Rhubarb, but after it puts in two monasteries and a theatre, it's the only way I see of getting the full BFC, which buys me a turn of travel time for units to defend against Pindi. That would take 8 turns of building, plus the Parth time, so I would not want Music before eot162. Of course I can't get CS on the preferred, efficient tech path or Guilds before then so the order itself is moot, just what I want to be able to build: CS (on a beeline via CoL) for farm chains and maces, Feud for longbows, or Music doe Sistene (and every other city just sticks with what it has).

An Artist to counter bomb and support the quick second golden age does sound like the sort of flexibility I would value quite highly. And I do have war elephants to deal with knights...

[Krill]

Bing has annoyed me by building Parthenon and fucking up Rhubarbs culture, so I am now willing to invade him. That will probably bring the gmae to a conclusion a bit quicker. I also whipped the GL just because I don't trust the situation (4 pop in Apple, painful as it costs me around 90 food for 60 base hammers). Bing whipped his capital for 3 pop to do it. I could have whipped this turn for four pop, and I know I got the Aesthetics first. Technically lost on turn order, but I would not have whipped Rhubarb so meh.

The fail gold essentially gets me Music via Drama though (I think in four turns), so Rhubarb will have a go at Sistene and slot in monastaries and a theatre now. Thoth is heading for Theology so all told I have the time in terms of Guilds.

[Krill]

Got Music. Bing is researching Currency. CoL will be a one turn tech without putting beakers into it, and Monarchy is due in 7 turns at 0%. Considering options but using the artist for a GA suggest I could get into Confucianism and a religious civic immediate after finishing SP in around 10 turns and then finish in Bureau and just need to get Guilds for knights.

[greenline]

Where would you build heroic epic?