Politics Discussion Thread (Heated Arguing Warning)

[Krill]

Tories would have fewer seats than they do now and be beholden to another party, for a majority below 5.

There will be another election in 3 months.

[AdrienIer]

How to shoot yourself in the foot by Theresa May

[MJW (ya that one)]

DUP+SF+CON is now over 50%. If Krill is right this won't matter.

Zac Goldsmith got his seat back by 45 votes.

[Mr. Cairo]

By SF are you referring to Sinn Fein?

They lower the number needed for an effective majority, but they aren't actually going to partake in a government with the Conservatives and DUP.

[Krill]

SF will never take seats in parliament, and Pro brexit Tories, or at least the hard core ones number greater than the majority the government commands. I don't see this ending well for the Tories unless the rabidity of those members gets curbed somewhat.

[MJW (ya that one)]

By SF are you referring to Sinn Fein?

They lower the number needed for an effective majority, but they aren't actually going to partake in a government with the Conservatives and DUP.

That's why I only counted half of them.

[MJW (ya that one)]

DUP+Tory alliance seems likely now...

If people believe what they say then what would happen is Brexit negotiations would crash and burn over immigration alone; forcing hard brexit. But because that isn't true in politics there's other things that could happen.

[scooter]

As a casually interested observer, the very concept of snap elections is fascinating and also very strange to me. From a pure drama standpoint, it's A+ stuff.

[Krill]

Just so people have an understanding, the DUP propping up the Tories is like Sinn Fein propping up Labour, if the seat numbers were reversed. And Sinn Fein mortared 10 Downing Street.

And even with SF not taking the seats, Con+DUP have a majority of...5? Because of the speaker. Before he election Tories had a working majority of 12.

Draw your own conclusions.

[Mr. Cairo]

I don't think there'll be an election that soon, simply because it would be better for all the opposition parties to let this coalition stumble from mistake to mistake over the next year or two, and not just re: Brexit negotiations. The DUP are socially far to the right of every major UK party, including the conservatives. Working with a party that opposes abortion rights, gay marriage, and contain (at least) one MP who's a climate change denier, will turn more centrist Conservatives away. Meanwhile the DUP is having issues in the NI government itself, and wont want to do anything that could endanger their quite fragile position in Stormont, so they'll be leery of supporting the government on anything that would be even the slightest bit unpopular in NI.

IMO, the longer the coalition will go on, the less popular it will be, and the greater likelihood that the Conservatives lose the next election.

Edit: Also, I think if Sinn Fein ever were to actually take their seats in the House, now is the time they would do it. They could go and vote against every gov't bill, make speeches in Irish (if that's allowed ), and generally be a nuisance. It would make them even more popular in NI among Republicans, further driving SDLP voters their way.