UK Politics Discussion Thread

[ipecac]

Krill, if there is a hard Brexit, does it matter that much to the UK if there's no hard border between the Irelands? Isn't it just the EUcrats that will complain about import requirements, so that it'll be up to them to solve the border mess?

[Krill]

Expect the troubles to restart in NI.

Expect Sein Fein the demand a reunification poll claiming the UK has broken the Good Friday Agreement.

Expect the UK to not put up border posts and make Ireland break the GFA instead, which would invalidate all the above, not that nationalists would care.

Expect SNP to push for another Indy Ref.

I would not expect bombings on the mainland, but to be clear: if they did I think there will be a massive groundswell of support for Boris.

[Krill]

Specifically, no one is can make the UK out up a hard border in NI, which forces Ireland to put up the border and break the GFA.

Which is why there have been minor reports that the offer to the EU is that Ireland moves into alignment with the UK and breaks Ireland way from the EU if a trade deal isn't completed by next year. I have no idea what happens then. Ireland would be straight up against it but what I've read is that the UK will get hurt by no deal but Ireland gets nuked and has to rely on bailouts the from the EU...with Germany in recession.

[Mr. Cairo]

Specifically, no one is can make the UK out up a hard border in NI

what?

Also, if the whole point of brexit was to gain back control of stuff like immigration, then why is it suddenly ok to have an entirely uncontrolled border with the EU? Anyone who can get to Ireland can now get to the UK. Either that's acceptable to Boris, or they start doing checks in the Irish Sea, which the DUP don't want. If the UK doesn't put up border posts on its border with the EU, then WTO rules means it has to treat goods coming from the rest of the world the exact same way. So no tariffs on anything from anywhere, which would seriously damage the UK's industry and agriculture sectors at the very least.

BJ can say what he likes. The rest of the world knows that he's the architect of no-deal. One of the main architects of Brexit entirely. So if the GFA is broken due to no-deal Brexit, the rest of the world will not be blaming the EU and Ireland.

[ipecac]

Specifically, no one is can make the UK out up a hard border in NI, which forces Ireland to put up the border and break the GFA.

Which is why there have been minor reports that the offer to the EU is that Ireland moves into alignment with the UK and breaks Ireland way from the EU if a trade deal isn't completed by next year. I have no idea what happens then. Ireland would be straight up against it but what I've read is that the UK will get hurt by no deal but Ireland gets nuked and has to rely on bailouts the from the EU...with Germany in recession.

That makes sense.

It appears Bojo is stalling for the right reason. His position is stronger, and if he's fine with no-deal stalling can only benefit him.

BJ can say what he likes. The rest of the world knows that he's the architect of no-deal. One of the main architects of Brexit entirely. So if the GFA is broken due to no-deal Brexit, the rest of the world will not be blaming the EU and Ireland.

Who cares? How does the reaction of the rest affect his reelection chances, or his legacy in Britain?

[MJW (ya that one)]

UK can get away with breaking GFA because it would put Sinn Fein heads I win tails you lose situation. If they bomb people DUP will use 9/11 to score massive poltical points. If they don't it will become obvious that the nationalists were at fault for the Troubles because they could gain poltical advantage. This will slowly but surely posion the water against them and make UK win someday. They would also look foolish after no violence happens after BJ said it wouldn't and they said it would. UK admitting don't care about GFA would be too much but they just have to break it and then plausibly deny guilt. The fact Ireland would put up the wall would enable them to do this.

Allowing a backdoor would destory the single market so EU would crack first.

[Krill]

Specifically, no one is can make the UK out up a hard border in NI

what?

Also, if the whole point of brexit was to gain back control of stuff like immigration, then why is it suddenly ok to have an entirely uncontrolled border with the EU? Anyone who can get to Ireland can now get to the UK. Either that's acceptable to Boris, or they start doing checks in the Irish Sea, which the DUP don't want. If the UK doesn't put up border posts on its border with the EU, then WTO rules means it has to treat goods coming from the rest of the world the exact same way. So no tariffs on anything from anywhere, which would seriously damage the UK's industry and agriculture sectors at the very least.

BJ can say what he likes. The rest of the world knows that he's the architect of no-deal. One of the main architects of Brexit entirely. So if the GFA is broken due to no-deal Brexit, the rest of the world will not be blaming the EU and Ireland.

The first question I'll ignore

The second question: Good Friday Agreement always required an open border of some description, so the idea of it being "OK" is irrelevant, because it is viewed differently.

You need to read the BBC article for a brief overview, and then research more if you want to look deeper, but the point is: other countries can complain through the WTO but by the time that reaches a conclusion, which will take years, the initial problem on the Irish border will be resolved. So your point about the tariffs is incorrect in reality even if correct in law.

What happens is the EU forces Ireland to enforce a hard border (breaking the GFA itself, which frees the UK then do whatever is necessary and circumvents the WTO issue), or the EU enforces a hard border outside Ireland (in which case, and I'm not certain on this, pushing towards a free trade deal and the use of GATT 24 starts to interfere with the WTO issue, but then we also watch domestic terrorism effects.

And I point to ipecac's post for the irrelevance of the global response:

Who cares? How does the reaction of the rest affect his reelection chances, or his legacy in Britain?

[Krill]

UK can get away with breaking GFA because it would put Sinn Fein heads I win tails you lose situation. If they bomb people DUP will use 9/11 to score massive poltical points. If they don't it will become obvious that the nationalists were at fault for the Troubles because they could gain poltical advantage. This will slowly but surely posion the water against them and make UK win someday. They would also look foolish after no violence happens after BJ said it wouldn't and they said it would.  UK admitting don't care about GFA would be too much but they just have to break it and then plausibly deny guilt. The fact Ireland would put up the wall would enable them to do this.

Allowing a backdoor would destory the single market so EU would crack first.

MJW, the terrorism has already started: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-49441699

[MJW (ya that one)]

Continuality IRA is not Sinn Fein so DUP wouldn't be able to use them to score pollical points. Maybe if they become big enough they could become attached to the boarder pollical landscape but at this point they are just random people who bomb.

[Charriu]

BJ can say what he likes. The rest of the world knows that he's the architect of no-deal. One of the main architects of Brexit entirely. So if the GFA is broken due to no-deal Brexit, the rest of the world will not be blaming the EU and Ireland.

Who cares? How does the reaction of the rest affect his reelection chances, or his legacy in Britain?

Who cares if BJ is reelected, when the economy crashes after a no-deal? 

Also I have to point out that the UK needs/wants to negotiate new trade deals after the Brexit and guess what may affect these negotiations.