[SPOILERS] Small Wunders and Izzy of Inca: The fat lady sings

[WilliamLP]

Thinking about it, I think the odds of winning a fight in Retep's capital are essentially 0. What are the chances that 2 axes can take down a protective archer in 40% culture on a hill? I'm not sure but I wouldn't be surprised if it's less than 50%. Even in the best case he probably has enough warning to rush one or maybe two additional archers at any time, whipping and maybe switching to full production and using overflow for one more.

And I'm still of the mindset that if we're going to send military his way there needs to be something to gain that makes it worth the investment, other than spite.

My gut here is that the simplest explanation is the correct one though - he's planning to throw everything at us. If he actually wants peace with us I would have a very hard time not taking it - having the 10 turns only needing minimal defense in the core is very valuable, to chop forests on the borders and so on.

[MindyMcCready]

Wait! That spice tile! I don't think that's visible to him!

That's our 2T window of opportunity! If we could launch exactly the turn before his borders pop!?! That just might do it!

[WilliamLP]

Wait! That spice tile! I don't think that's visible to him!

Unfortunately the hill 2S2W does see it.

[MindyMcCready]

Thinking about it, I think the odds of winning a fight in Retep's capital are essentially 0. What are the chances that 2 axes can take down a protective archer in 40% culture on a hill? I'm not sure but I wouldn't be surprised if it's less than 50%.

First 2 axes ganging up on one archer gives an 88% chance (no fort) of 2nd attacker victory and 80% with full fortify. Full fortify is not likely to happen given he's on a rampage.

There's also the possibiltiy of sending in Quechas first.

Even in the best case he probably has enough warning to rush one or maybe two additional archers at any time, whipping and maybe switching to full production and using overflow for one more.

Certainly, 3T vs 2T makes a huge difference here. We're going to need every one of our available axes and archers for reinforcing.

And I'm still of the mindset that if we're going to send military his way there needs to be something to gain that makes it worth the investment, other than spite.

Yeah,.....I want to take his capital. That 'gain' enough for ya?

My gut here is that the simplest explanation is the correct one though - he's planning to throw everything at us.

A large, distinct possibility still but an irrational one given Baccus' army. But it doesn't change anything here because if you're right then we need to build military regardless. If instead he does move toward the 3-army Baccus then we need to build military.

Either way, we're in both current and future conflict with him which he initiated.

If he actually wants peace with us I would have a very hard time not taking it - having the 10 turns only needing minimal defense in the core is very valuable, to chop forests on the borders and so on.

In every way I think that this is a mistake.

Scenario 1: He's coming for us and he won't accept anyway so why bother and we're building military regardless.

Scenario 2: He's all-in 100% going for Baccus. We give him 10T to full gobble up the hugely unprepared Baccus and face a huge, ballista-equipped Retep later on. That culture you spend those 10T building won't matter against cats. We should be *containing* Retep while expanding out to the best of our ability rather than giving him a free hand.

Scenario 3: He's 100% going for Baccus and using the 'Art of War' - appear strong where you are weak. Position troops in our lands and threaten push us around with your big miltiary stat.

Then there's the "what have we got to lose?". Are we scared of making an enemy out of Retep? Shouldn't have planted there.
Are we scared of losing our army? There's forest or hills all the way up to his capital so we should be able to retreat. The economic cost isn't that significant if we're forced to build military anyway.

We have a few turns to decide. But I really think that offering peace with Retep, whether he goes for us or Baccus, and/or whether we invade or not, is the wrong move.

[MindyMcCready]

Wait! That spice tile! I don't think that's visible to him!

Unfortunately the hill 2S2W does see it.

Ouch.

[WilliamLP]

First 2 axes ganging up on one archer gives an 88% chance (no fort) of 2nd attacker victory and 80% with full fortify. Full fortify is not likely to happen given he's on a rampage.

How did you get that 88% number? It would be nice to have a calculator for multi-unit combat without having to code up some kind of Monte Carlo simulator.

In any case though, I'm not convinced that we could take retep's capital at all if he plays competently, and we have some skeleton of defense at home against barbs and third party "scouts". I don't know what he's playing for, but I have zero reason to believe he's a poor player, let alone terrible enough to allow a PRO hill capital to be taken in the early game by a close player who he outnumbers. And I'd need a sure thing to go for it. Even losing an 88% roll is too much risk for me, given that it's game over.

Yeah,.....I want to take his capital. That 'gain' enough for ya?

If possible, sure! There are less risky ways to get a really good size 1 city right now though, and relative to the rest of the world that's the most important part of the calculation.

Either way, we're in both current and future conflict with him which he initiated.

You'll roll your eyes but I'm not completely sure we can't have a long period of peace once he realizes he's getting nowhere with an attack. And with an economic edge the more time that goes by the more we can get more ahead.

Scenario 2: He's all-in 100% going for Baccus. We give him 10T to full gobble up the hugely unprepared Baccus and face a huge, ballista-equipped Retep later on. That culture you spend those 10T building won't matter against cats. We should be *containing* Retep while expanding out to the best of our ability rather than giving him a free hand.

I don't think I agree with that! I think we gain more from pumping out 2 settlers right now that Retep gains from any military action with Bacchus. His dream scenario is winning a capital but it will be far away, impose distance costs, and not be connected for trade. Meanwhile we get that awesome city for 100 hammers and don't have to build any extra military to do so.

Scenario 3: He's 100% going for Baccus and using the 'Art of War' - appear strong where you are weak. Position troops in our lands and threaten push us around with your big miltiary stat.

Hah yeah, there's a lot of weird feints that are possible. Maybe it's essential to his plan that he appears to be attacking us so we must remain at war. But again... the least subtle explanation for what we see seems most likely to me.

Then there's the "what have we got to lose?". Are we scared of making an enemy out of Retep? Shouldn't have planted there.
Are we scared of losing our army? There's forest or hills all the way up to his capital so we should be able to retreat. The economic cost isn't that significant if we're forced to build military anyway.

Well with 10 turns of forced peace we wouldn't have to build quite as much military, either now or later.

Now, all this is moot so far because he shows no signs of wanting peace at this point.

Anyway, the turn report:




Our current force to defend Barber is 3 axes, 2 archers, 2 quechuas. Another axe builds next turn. We got a free Buddhism spread! The only downside is that culture means the city won't auto-raze at size 1, which gives more incentive to try and take it now.

The axes on the forests NW and S are both guarding workers. I want to chop the terrace and then more military, aided by a whip at size 3. The 20% border pop will be very useful. Getting rid of those forests hopefully gives us slightly better defense and a semblance of map control.

I'm hoping to be able to start a settler next turn to eventually whip / chop out, but retep needs to stop building axes every turn before that can happen.




Trying to keep up with Pete. (He logs in as Pedro sometimes, and retep is Peter backwards.)

I wish our score wasn't so stupidly and artificially high, heh. We're not in a good position at all anymore to be competitive with the rest of the world in the midgame, in practical terms.

[Krill]

Binomial expansion FTW.

[WilliamLP]

Binomial expansion FTW.

I'm not one of the people here smart enough to write out and solve combinatorial equations for all my combats. Maybe I could do it with generating functions or eigenvalues...

[Krill]

Dude I still don't understand what an eigenvalue is. I managed to blag 2 years of chemistry without most of that knowledge.

I just use Cyneheard's combat calculator to get the odds of each battle outcome for two-3 battles and then figure out what I class as a successful battle, and it's fairly easy to figure out what the "minimum" requirements are for each battle to continue onto the next one.

[WilliamLP]

I just use Cyneheard's combat calculator to get the odds of each battle outcome for two-3 battles and then figure out what I class as a successful battle, and it's fairly easy to figure out what the "minimum" requirements are for each battle to continue onto the next one.

Ah that doesn't sound too bad. Getting Excel is the hardest part now.