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As a French person I feel like it's my duty to explain strikes to you. - AdrienIer |
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[SPOILERS] By the Rivers of Babylon, FIN has no effect (on krovice)
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Gawdzak made all those moves, and also promoted all the archers to CG1 - apparently they had unused promotions. The city also finished a sixth archer. So I wasn't quite happy with my odds, and sent in two catapults, who got retreats at 33% and 55%. That did the trick.
 CH made peace with Dtay, boo.
I have to run.
Internet should be setup tomorrow but I have a stable enough temporary connection to last the next few days now. Looking in game now to try and figure out the cost of losing foreign trade routes.
6, 11, 4, 4, 6, 2, 5, 6, 2, 8, and then the next 10 cities lose 2 commerce per city. So we should lose a total of around 82 (considering new cities) commerce from revolting into Merc.
Running Merc costs 11gpt, with inflation at 16%. So the cost of Merc is something in the region of 90gpt (rough estimate). We have 22 cities, 2 more that come out of revolt by eot T148, and a further 2 cities settled before the GA could start. We have one settler being built but unless we whip it this turn it basically isn't going to be relevant until the GA is almost over anyway, and at that point costs and multipliers are going to be so different an analysis at this point doesn't help too much. But what we know is that we have 6 libraries and an Academy (but as one lib is in the HE city which will run an engineer, we effectively only have 5). That means running a free scientist (except that one engineer) in each city is worth a base 141bpt due to rep, and the multipliers add 11.25 bpt so essentially we come out with 152 bpt from Merc, but with a breakeven slider of 40% those trade routes would be worth an additional 8-ish bpt from those multipliers. tl;dr Merc is probably worth around about a 50bpt boost to us. Not amazing, only positive due to Rep and that we had to delay a golden age for so long. Bureaucracy is worth base 30 commerce per turn, but costs 18 gpt plus about 3gpt from inflation, so not a huge boost but hey no complaints. That's for OT though, once we move the capital to Ec then it should be a little better on base yields, and then the Academy. Palace should be done by T150 I think? On tech, I'm not sure how you intended to play it, but I think we can have Guilds eot T145 with a ton of overflow, and then basically finish Banking off eot T146 at something approaching break even? Then could start the GA T147 if you wanted. I still think that Bureaucracy/Caste/Merc is the right choice for this next phase of the game like you said before. I imagine that saving gold until at least the palace completes in Ec is the best choice, so we can then deficit research though the Bureau-Acadamy. I think we would end up with enough gold to deficit research for 6 or so turns after saving T147-T149, plus the left over gold from the Banking run. With 5 of those turns being GA turns, we can easily stack research overflow from going Aesthetics>Lit and then get Paper. I imagine that we could just about scrape together enough beakers to get PP by the end of the research run.
Are your tall cities significantly benefiting near rivals with open borders currently? Relative gains are usually worth consideration, although in a game this big I doubt it's worth more than 5-10gpt to anyone you care about.
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Not dtay cos no OB, and same continent, and frankly no one else is that important. I think everyone of note has triggered their first GA, so our first GA is going to close what gaps remain to everyone except dtay (and maybe OldTourist). BGN, the other score leader, has only just started on wars of conquest so I'm not sure how to judge his long term viability. I think that those key players also have quite a few large cities and we are benefiting from them as well, so any swing seems to be on that sort of scale.
I imagine that with 3 cities size 15 and over, and 6 other cities between size 10 and 15 (inclusive) we are perhaps helping some players like BGN and OldTourist more than we are benefiting from them. Another point is that I'm assuming we have two cities that give 3 commerce trade routes, and I'm not 100% sure that is the case. Cuddlefish at size 17 and on a separate island might end up giving 4 commerce trade routes (especially if we continue to grow it), which would mean Merc would "lose" 24 less commerce total and would go, IMO, from being a "meh" improvement to "pretty decent". OTOH, I'm not sure that the second trade route will be a 3 commerce trade route, because Mind Grain would be the city that gave the trade route and it would only be size 12 at the start of the GA. If MG only gives a 2 commerce route then Merc would go from "meh" to "shitty". It may be that we need to grow Mind Grain for the trade route and instead screw WH back into the ground the generate another Great Person. Personally, I think that reassessing on the first turn of the GA is when it is possible to decide if Ruff is going to be the next target from this position. I have a plan where we could theoretically gut him on T0 of a war from the fog without him knowing, but we'd have to get Astro to make it work. That would mean we'd have to win a blitz war using trebs, knights and other mediaeval junk IMO, starting from a base army of pretty much nothing. |
