Politics Discussion Thread (Heated Arguing Warning)

[Bacchus]

REM, I do wonder -- exactly what sort of movement is bothering you and why? UK is not within Schengen, so the conditions for non-EU nationals are not going to change, so which members of the EU worry you? In London, I see mostly people from the Baltic states, Poland and Bulgaria working in the services sector; there are also plenty of students and professionals from wherever, neither category appears to me in the least objectionable.

[T-hawk]

Why? I'm honestly interested in hearing the perspective of a non-voter.

Non-voter here. Because it's just not worth the effort. I laugh at all the people scurrying around and stressing out on election day. I'm going home as always. I don't care how easy it is to register or vote by mail. It's still more effort than I care to do.

Your one tiny little vote isn't what makes a difference in a democracy. That's not going to determine any futures. That's a placebo to make you think you matter. What does make a difference is campaigning, organizing, publicizing a message, reaching those thousands of voters that do swing a consensus and an election. Democracy does work in that respect, it's not just the establishment deciding to screw over whoever it can. Grassroots political effort really can work. But I've got a million other things I'd rather be doing than that.

[Mr. Cairo]

I'm not sure why keeping the UK in the single market means continuing payments into the EU budget, Mr. Cairo.

That is the price that Norway and Switzerland pay, and I don't see why they would waive that for the UK.

But the thing that bugs me so much is all these people doing it AFTER the vote! This was what the campaigning period was for. Most of these people demonstrating shared their statuses in a smug bubble over confident. However people like me genuinely put hours and hours of contacts in to make this happen. This is the most irksome thing about it. It's like children whining that they 'weren't prepared for such a hard exam and can we have a redo because we will work harder next time. Pretty please'

This simply isn't true. Maybe a small minority of internet assholes are like this, but where I live in the deep South (Chichester) I saw just as much effort being put into the Remain campaign as the Leave campaign, by people who passionately believe in either side. I'm sure at first, most people who supported remain never expected to lose, and weren't putting as much effort into it as you were, I know that my family certainly never thought it would happen (personally I had always thought that Leave would win). But as the polls drew closer and the rhetoric grew nastier, yeah, Remainers got concerned, they got worried, and the fact that they are still out there trying to do what they think is best for this country, should tell just how much they care about this issue, not how little.


I'll end with one final point, the thing that gets me personally mad about the result.

People in the UK voted leave based primarily on 4 issues:
1) Opposition to the freedom of movement that comes with being in the EU
2) Opposition to the UK paying money into the EU budget
3) Opposition to having to obey EU rules and regulations
4) Opposition to the idea of the UK being further integrated into the EU

Of those four issues, only #4 will actually be successful.

Not one of the possible candidates for PM right now are going to pull Britain out of the single market. Leaving the single market will cause a recession, and even if Britain can eventually stand on its own, it wont happen fast enough for the person responsible for it to avoid being voted out of office. The same is true if the next PM ignores the referendum result and keeps the UK in the EU.

So, the next PM will try and keep the UK in the single market, and the price for that will be continued freedom of movement, continued payment into the EU budget, and continued enforcement of EU rules and regulations.

You may well say that the UK economy is too important to the EU for them to play hardball in the negotiations, but the truth is, the EU can survive with the UK. It can't survive if it shows weakness when negotiating with the UK. As soon as the result came in, the EU cut its losses, and gave up on the UK. Anything it is able to get from the UK as a price for staying in the SM is a bonus.

So I have to ask you. Is succeeding in keeping the UK out of a fully integrated EU alone worth all the chaos and uncertainty that is gripping the UK right now?

Yes. 100%. EU and UK need each other as much. I actually believe the EU needs the UK more than the UK needs the EU (certain sections do anyway). I'm quite happy with the way things have turned out. Most of the MPs standing for PM are not going to accept anything less than movement controls. This is much more important than access to the free market IMO. The big beasts gain little from the movement, yet could lose hugely with lack of trade. EU regs are only required now on EU products, and we will pay less for market access.

If that truly is worth it for you, then I can respect that. But how do you think other Leave voters will react when we do leave the EU but still keep freedom of movement?
Do you think that Leave would have still won if the Leave campaign said from the beginning that there would be continued freedom of movement?

Also, I do not agree that the EU needs the UK more than the UK needs the EU. What is at stake here isn't just money, its survival. Every other EU country has anti-EU political parties, with many being VERY far to the right or left, that are attracting support from non-extreme voters. When negotiations begin, the leaders of the pro-EU mainstream political parties that are ruling in the EU (primarily Hollande and Merkel) must not give in to any of the UK's demands. If the UK leaving the single market as well as the EU is the price that needs to be paid to keep the EU together, then they will pay it. Thinking that UK will be able to get some sort of deal whereby they get to pick and chose which bits of the EU they're going to remain a part of is absurd.
Single market=freedom of movement. End of. (As far as the rest of the EU is concerned).
And I can't see any of the current candidates for conservative leader being willing to push Britain out of the common market: their big business donors would not accept that.

[darrelljs]

Your one tiny little vote isn't what makes a difference in a democracy.

Yet nothing determines the outcome of a close election like voter turnout. There is a reason anti-* referendums are synced with Presidential elections.

I find it amazing the FTSE has recovered and surpassed it's pre-Brexit value. Is is the lower pound bumping up expectations on exports, or the anticipation of massive government stimulus that's driving the bump?

Darrell

[Bacchus]

I'm not sure why keeping the UK in the single market means continuing payments into the EU budget, Mr. Cairo.

That is the price that Norway and Switzerland pay, and I don't see why they would waive that for the UK.

That payment is incomparable, on the economic area Norway contributes something like EUR 0.4bn per year, which is about 30 times less than UK's total contribution. Saying that nothing will be achieved by the UK paying 30 times less, because UK will still be paying something is the height of sophistry.

[darrelljs]

So novice, if Norway held a referendum to join the EU with the same "special status" provisions Cameron secured for the UK, would you vote yes or no? Would you expect the measure to pass or fail?

Darrell

[Mr. Cairo]

I'm not sure why keeping the UK in the single market means continuing payments into the EU budget, Mr. Cairo.

That is the price that Norway and Switzerland pay, and I don't see why they would waive that for the UK.

That payment is incomparable, on the economic area Norway contributes something like EUR 0.4bn per year, which is about 30 times less than UK's total contribution. Saying that nothing will be achieved by the UK paying 30 times less, because UK will still be paying something is the height of sophistry.

I wasn't trying to make any point about how much the UK or Norway contributes, simply that I don't think it likely that the UK will be able to have access to the single market without paying anything into the EU budget. I don't know how much the EU will ask/demand from the UK, but it will definitely be more than what the UK would get back, since it wont get anything back other than access to the single market. And it will likely be a lot more than Norway pays.

[Gazglum]

I agree that the EU is going to play absolute hardball with the UK. While they do need UK trade, I do think that the entire EU project is now tetering on the edge of collapse, and a single extremist government in one of the big member states could tip it over the edge. Making sure Britain doesn't set a positive example of gaining concessions though leaving, is the number one priority for the EU. Whether or not you think that is fair, I think it is how it has to be from Europe's perspective.

As for each country's EU payments, I presume they are calculated on a Per Capita basis? Or is some formula like GDP x population?

[Bacchus]

I don't think EU has that much space to play hardball really, their imports from the UK are in a large part high-tech, capital intensive goods -- specialist machinery, parts, engines that cannot be easily substituted. Slamming UK with import tarrifs would actually hurt Continental manufacturers. Maybe they can tax Range Rovers and Mini Coopers What EU will do, and this will hurt, is limit the scope for London banks to execute Euro-denominated transactions.

[Mardoc]

Making sure Britain doesn't set a positive example of gaining concessions though leaving, is the number one priority for the EU. Whether or not you think that is fair, I think it is how it has to be from Europe's perspective.

At the same time, though...do they really want to give Britain a reason to go back to its historical policy toward Europe?