[SPOILERS - NO PLAYERS] The Final Clusterfuck: The PB38 Map and Lurker Thread

[JR4]

Commodore looks to be in a good position here. 
 
-Old Henry, the other distant new world contender,  is very likely to try to eat Elkad along with William and will be distracted in the near-term. 

It's looking a whole lot that Mackoti has already sewn this game up and will be able to eat civ after civ with that MFG advantage. But Comm could take top 3 maybe top 2 depending.

It sure looks like Mackoti is the runaway right now. He hit Rusten hard and will use that Great Artist to get that tasty Hindu Shrine going asap. Mackoti has a number of targets after Rusten is dead, Mr.Cairo and Naufragar could be next on the menu (though Naufragar will be tough to digest). TBS still has a good chance of fighting Mackoti in the late game as he`s getting tons of free Astro land. As for Commodore, he`s certainly behind the two others and I don`t expect him to challenge for the win but who knows? Maybe he can just swoop in once Plako and Gavagai have burned that corner of the world down? Right now I`d place Finharry in third as they have about a million options. They could focus on getting Astro land but more likely they`ll build a massive army and roll over some of their neighbors. Elkad doesn`t have a long border with Finharry, they are probably going for William (or Joey) first. One thing Finharry have going for them is that they don`t really have any competition for regional supremacy. If they get rolling they can continue for a long time. Perhaps Donovan is the only one with enough territory to stop them.

[Mardoc]

Hopefully what I'm seeing out west is another full-sized continent, or at least Australia. This one here, North America, is about to be full up.

So, what he sees is most definitely another full-sized continent, at least as big as what he's already claiming.  

I'm startled by the fact that Commodore appears to have already caught up to TBS, despite a four? turn delayed start.  He's now got four cities settled in 'the Americas', plus two-three settlers in the vicinity.  TBS appears to have four cities settled, plus 'a settler being ferried in'.  In addition, Commodore appears to have denied TBS knowledge of 'South America' - which might give him the ability to settle it all.  Thirteen cities most likely in 'the Americas' for Commodore, 5-7 for TBS.

It'll be interesting to see who gets the next continent to the west.  TBS ought to already know about it, but he appears to have run his scouting galleon just a smidge too far north.   Commodore, might or might not quite know about it, but he built settlers just in case, so he'll be able to establish cities there in 2-3 turns.  I don't think he can grab it all before TBS notices it, but it's starting to look plausible that Commodore gets 60-80% of that continent, too.  At that point, Commodore will most definitely have the majority of the port cities in the Southern Ocean, enough to win any naval war...if he wants to.  He might instead try to pull off a 'let's you and him fight' with TBS and Mackoti.

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I agree Mackoti's in better shape, though.  Commodore is poised to maybe triple his initial empire...with size 1 cities.  Mack's already pushing on triple his initial empire, except all of his new cities have population and pre-improved tiles and maybe even some infrastructure.  I think Mack could be stopped, but only if all of the other contenders can find ways to not fight each other and instead spend some effort on Mack.  In particular, if they were to hit him now while he's not to Astronomy yet and hasn't gotten Rusten's land productive yet...but I don't think that will happen.

Plus, Mack is finally getting to a point where he's snowballing in both tech and production, while his neighbors aren't, so his next war should be even easier.

[Bacchus]

As Mackoti is a little too far for TBS to really worry about, and Mackoti has a couple close and softer targets, I would expect TBS to try and take over Comm's new world holdings -- and before that port advantage ensures that TBS loses all his own. If he doesn't, I don't think either TBS or Comm could catch up to Mack by natural development.

[Krill]

TBS loses if he attacks Com. Too long to do anything, can't fight chm galleons until he gets frigates, he is already at a port disadvantage.

I think the Music Artist plus fantastic shrine and SoZ puts mackoti into an unassailable position. He just has to keep the steamroller going to take as much as possible to the SW, whilst holding defensively at the culture bomb.

[Mardoc]

TBS loses if he attacks Com. Too long to do anything, can't fight chm galleons until he gets frigates, he is already at a port disadvantage.

I agree...unless he manages to catch Commodore by surprise somehow, and also attack overland.  Doesn't seem likely but it's at least theoretically possible.

Edit: Also, Bacchus may be right that Commodore will look tasty, even if that's not a war that could actually work. Personally I'd have expected TBS to hit Dreylin, and that doesn't appear to be happening either.

I think the Music Artist plus fantastic shrine and SoZ puts mackoti into an unassailable position. He just has to keep the steamroller going to take as much as possible to the SW, whilst holding defensively at the culture bomb.

Yeah, theoretically he could be stopped, but practically he probably can't be.  No one can profit from hitting him, and the powers of the earth are all too far away to consider it an urgent problem.  By the time someone is ready to hit Mack, he'll have consolidated.  He's already probably in a tech lead, too, and that will just increase.

About the only vulnerability he has left is coastal, but I don't think anyone can do enough damage coastally to be worth going on a razing spree, and again there's still the lack of a profit motive. Certainly can't keep any of his ports, just raze them.

About the only wild card is naufrager, honestly.  If he hits Mack right now, he can probably slow him enough to make the Rusten conquest a slog.  Alternately, if nauf were to conquer Cairo fast enough, he could maybe be a roadblock to further expansion.  I'd put both of those at <10%, but still more likely than anyone else to make a difference.

If it weren't for the Music artist, I'd think TBS could hit mack in newly-conquered land and swing that war, but the artist probably makes him safe.  TBS having other angles for expansion makes it less likely for him to try, too, especially since he knows he's in a race for the astro lands.

Of course the biggest problem is that no one wants to fight mack.  Best outcome from fighting him is to throw the game to a third party, not to win yourself.

[Zed-F]

Mack was 80-90% likely to win on T0 on the basis of neighbor luck, so it’s really been his to lose from the outset. No big mistakes + taking advantage of obvious opportunities + better starting position than top-ranked rivals = win.

[Krill]

Everyone says that but neighbour luck is just opportunity. It's not execution.

[scooter]

Yeah, Mackoti's got this in the bag. TBS doesn't give up on games, so he'll definitely make him work for it... but Mackoti just has so many advantages right now.

I think Commodore will cruise to a podium finish with his relentless island settling combined with Gavagi ... keeping him safe on the mainland. That was a weird thing to type, but it's true.

[scooter]

Everyone says that but neighbour luck is just opportunity. It's not execution.

I mean, sure, but 0 people are surprised that Mackoti is able to execute. There are probably 2 other players/teams in this right now that probably could have executed equally well too. I don't think it's taking anything away from Mackoti's excellent game so far to point out that he started with a few extra chips in his stack.

[Zed-F]

Pretty much this. That you have to execute on your opportunities is a given. But Mack has had more and better opportunities than anyone else with comparable skill, and his neighbors have been intimidated by him to the point where he can gobble them up according to his own timetable, so it’s only natural that he should be snowballing faster.