270 now allows you to go to 2020 Senate. Here's my predictions in map form:
Solid: I call it.
Likely: I almost call it.
Lean: This party has a clear edge.
Tossup/Tilt: Everything else/I guess this team. I would use tossup for a formal prediction because guessing a team requires too much feeling/intuition and would change too much.
Changes from 11/19/2018
MI Likely-->Lean D. Only had this at Likely D to avoid only one Likely D but that's silly.
TN Solid-->Likely R. Sabato will leave this at Solid because Blackburn won by 10% against Bredesen in a blue wave year. I agree with them Blackburn was weak but what they are overlooking is that Bredesen was also weak because he's Pro-Choice+Bipartisan which is a bad combo for Senate.
It's obvious that McSally will be picked to replace Kyl. AZ stays were it is.
This map is a hard prediction because they only big change that would happen (greater than one level) is if Bullock runs in MT. If he does it's Tossup/Tilt R. If not it's Solid R. This is because he's very strong because he's "Pro-Life"+Bipartisan and he would not be able to be replaced if he doesn't run.
Mueller final report due in February. I don't know if Trump is toast because of him not firing Rothstein and bad things happening to him that might justify his actions (Cable leaking information) but it's very plausible. Mueller went as fast as possible because of new leads he got by people cracking so I cannot see how partisan he is by his actions.
I remember arguing that folding on the DACA won't matter to NC because of Trump. This shutdown vindicates me. Far-right can do much better (Orban, Hofer, Salvini, Kaczyński, Putin, Erdogan…). Trump only won because of being the only person in his "lane" and others not clearing theirs in time due to selfishness and Rick Santorum forcing the RNC to change the rules by not dropping in 2012.
(October 17th, 2018, 12:15)Krill Wrote: I reckon it matters now...more specifically, I wonder about the ethical consequences of either lying, or fraudulent misrepresentation.
The worst strike is the sheer idiocy of releasing a test that 'demonstrates' 1/64 - 1/1024 heritage, and getting condemned by the tribe she claims affiliation with.
I see, it's not stupidity, it's damage control. She jettisons her biggest weakness now and shamelessly pushes ahead to be President, hoping to dismiss this Indian business as 'old news' in 2020.
(October 17th, 2018, 12:15)Krill Wrote: I reckon it matters now...more specifically, I wonder about the ethical consequences of either lying, or fraudulent misrepresentation.
The worst strike is the sheer idiocy of releasing a test that 'demonstrates' 1/64 - 1/1024 heritage, and getting condemned by the tribe she claims affiliation with.
I see, it's not stupidity, it's damage control. She jettisons her biggest weakness now and shamelessly pushes ahead to be President, hoping to dismiss this Indian business as 'old news' in 2020.
With Trump no one will care about that. I consider the 2020 election to be Tossup/Tilt D because Trump being weak and the inevitable 2020 Clown Car almost cancelling eachother out. It think this thread should be renamed Clown Car when things heat up. (I consider House Lean D and Senate to be Lean R if Bullock doesn't declare and Tossup/Tilt R if he does declare for the MT seat.)
2020 depends on the Dem candidate, they're not all clown car. Elizabeth Warren is, basically all the same downsides as Hillary. Sanders is, Trump knows how to siphon off enough of his base because he already did it. Cory Booker isn't clown car, he'd defeat Trump by getting all the black vote, if the Dems can get their shit together to run him. Beto also isn't clown car, he miiiight flip Texas and if he does he'd win.
(January 2nd, 2019, 10:38)T-hawk Wrote: 2020 depends on the Dem candidate, they're not all clown car. Elizabeth Warren is, basically all the same downsides as Hillary. Sanders is, Trump knows how to siphon off enough of his base because he already did it. Cory Booker isn't clown car, he'd defeat Trump by getting all the black vote, if the Dems can get their shit together to run him. Beto also isn't clown car, he miiiight flip Texas and if he does he'd win.
When I said Clown Car I'm talking about the outrageous amount of canadines. They will damage themselves a lot, especially considering that they view Trump as extremely weak and therefore focus on winning the nomination at all costs.
Trump is willing to let the government be shutdown indefinitely. I predict Schumer will "fold" by switching to pay-as-you-go for the remainder of Trump's term. It's not logical to even care about $5 billion dollars of wall after the DACA fold. Freedom caucus and Joe Machin put Schumer in a bad position for DACA but that isn't good enough. If it's actually unacceptable you still don't fold. No-one would care about $5 billion dollars of wall by 2020 so you make Trump a lame duck until 2020 for free.
The play is to start impeachment next year and drag it out during the presidential campaign. This year is foreplay and disruption.
Trump has put himself in a corner and he can't back down now. Democrats will fold though. The question is if they can spin it to the voters that they are doing it for them. I doubt it.
Inside elections put CO at Toss-up and AL at Lean R. They put VA at Solid but TX, KS, MT, KY & TN at Solid shows they are not biased. I can feel Gonzales's condensation toward the fact that Jones is Pro-Choice+Bipartisan in AL from putting it at Lean R, not Tilt R, and the fact he put CO at Toss-up, not Tilt D.
I don't know if Trump is toast because of him not firing Rothstein and bad things happening to him that might justify his actions (Cable leaking information) but it's very plausible. Mueller went as fast as possible because of new leads he got by people cracking so I cannot see how partisan he is by his actions. 
