Politics Discussion Thread (Heated Arguing Warning)

[MJW (ya that one)]

 However, they failed to find these things for the last election, so I have every confidence they can fail again.

I think it's dubious, but I've read speculation that this week's revelations are the product of political machinations from within the VA Democratic Party.  The theory goes something like Fairfax leaked the yearbook photo in order to steal the governorship, Herring immediately called on Northam to resign to position himself for 2022 (VA governors are limited to a single term), Northam's people revived the allegation against Fairfax both for revenge and to strengthen the governor's hand, and then Herring somehow realized that his political rivals were about to hit him as well.  

I suppose that could explain why the Republicans didn't bring up any of this four months ago when they were trailing in the polls and presumably desperate for any dirt they could dig up, but it reads too much like the cute script of a TV drama.

The reporter from Big League Poltics explicitly told the source was someone who gave the photo because of Northam's abortion comments. The yearbook staff also was very private so the only people who would have access to that are former students. As for Fairfax the accuser only contacted Left-wing people (because she's a Democrat) who didn't do anything. BLP presented an obvious solution to her problem.

[MJW (ya that one)]

As for Herring, I thought about it and I think he realized it would be too dangerous to run again because blackface got a lot of attention and there were a lot of people at that party. Not running for no reason in 2021 would draw too much attention too. So he decided to confess to get free brownie points.

[MJW (ya that one)]

Fairfax is toast. Like Moore there's now multiple woman and they told people/ sent emails BEFORE "MeToo". This "minor" detail is why Kav and Trump could scoot by while Fairfax and Moore get toast.

[MJW (ya that one)]

Fairfax won't resign. That's bad news for the DEMS the GOP might actually win VA in 2019, 2020 and 2021 but after that they are dead because of demographics and Fairfax, Northram and Herring not being present for a year.

[MJW (ya that one)]

We might get another shutdown. Bi-partisan GOP lawmakers are refusing to talk. I'm sure nothing big will happen because DEMs will just fold if they have to. They had no way of knowing for sure that courts would hand them the win on DACA when they folded that and you would have to be sure to fold because a 10% chance of something unacceptable happening is still unacceptable.

[MJW (ya that one)]

As expected, DEMS pull back. 

[MJW (ya that one)]

2020 Senate time!

No longer have tilt.

Solid: Call it 
Likely: Almost call it
Lean: Clear Edge 
Toss-up: Everything else.

KS is solid if Kris Kobach doesn't win R nomination.
MI is basically an open seat, and the GOP will at least get John James at worst, so that's why it's Lean. 
Overall Senate rating: Tossup  

Changes:
MN: Lean D-->Likely D. Was on the fence but DEMs successfully stalling until June 2020 on DACA is very bad news for the GOP so I bump this up. I wasn't on the fence on anything else.  
TN: Likely-->Solid R. Now that a reasonably strong Pro-Choice candidate has entered the DEM primary that will lock out a possible Pro-Life candidate from the election. GOP win.  
NH: Lean-->Likely D. Ayotte and Sununu won't run and GOP will struggle to take out strong incumbent. Not a shoe-in because Trump barely missed this state. 
MT: Likely-->Solid R. It's obvious he'll run for President. He has no chance at the nomination because he's "Pro-Life". It's obvious. Why are people so dumb? At least with other suicidal candidates they are protecting party purity but here he just loses.   I'm not usually one to mock other people but this is so dumb that it deserves to be mocked because not mocking him implies that I still respect him is a person when that's not true. 

   

[MJW (ya that one)]

PredictIt has flipped on Brexit on March 29. 

[MJW (ya that one)]

PredictIt has flipped on Brexit on March 29. 

Well this didn't age well. At this point I'm sure Coburn doesn't have what it takes to crash out so he'll fall on his sword if EU declines to extend someday. So on the surface Leave got nothing but they got the ECJ to make a dumb ruling that destabilizes the EU (for allowing member nations to take potshots at the EU and the ruling is obviously incorrect* and made because of the Europhile nature of the ECJ which undermines them and the EU) and could tip the scales later...

*It says you need permission to extend so it doesn't make sense to not need permission to revoke.

[Krill]

Corbyn is screwed. He can't retreat to unilateral revoke because of the manifesto, he can't embrace no deal, he can't negotiate with the Eu to get whatever deal he wants, and he can't force an extension (whether one happens or not is irrelevant, it will not be because of him).

May is kinda screwed, but if she expects to step down in the summer it doesn't matter. Even if there were an extension, Parliament can only state what it wants the government to attempt to gain, but it can't state what it will be willing to give as that is royal perogative granted to the Government, not to parliament. So even if the EU gives an extension, it doesn't change the EU position of "Fuck you, this is the deal, you accept it as is" being the core agreement. I seriously doubt the EU grants an extension.

I reckon the inanely named "independent group" will propose an amendment revoking Article 50 after a failure to extend occurs, and basically says to all the MPs: "Vote with us to revoke Article 50, renounce the whip of your parties (SNP and LD will vote with them but not renounce the whip) and as we need a majority for this anyway, let's go for a coalition government until the end of this parliament so we have time to build up a network for the next GE so we aren't all out of a job at the end of this". And if the EU believes this can happen, they have no reason to extend.

This isn't just May's gamble anymore. If there are too many remainers in the Tory party, they will split the group themselves, and the rump of the Tory party becomes UKIP.