Politics Discussion Thread (Heated Arguing Warning)

[Krill]

The interesting thing about the WTO is that the UK is a member state now. Ireland isn't: it is the EU that is the member state. So the UK can use the security veto bit but I don't know if Ireland is allowed to unless the EU agrees! If they can't that might be a bit of a hiccup.

[Gavagai]

Spain is tempted to veto a deal that isn't good for them because they want Gibraltar back, and they think they might get it back if there's no deal (Gibraltar can't survive without free access to Spain, where they get most of their goods).

As for Gavagai's example, either the WTO rules have changed since the early 90s or the WTO countries didn't sue at the time because they accepted the situation. There's no way that none of the WTO countries neighboring the EU sues if the Irish border gets a pass.

Edit : scratch that, the WTO didn't exist before 1995, hence why the German situation could exist back then. Do you mind looking things up before you post Gavagai ?

Edit : Only West Germany was a member of GATT, the WTO's predecessor

The implication of your response is that WTO rules are more of a roadblock than the fact that Eastern Germany was a member of Warsaw Pact and was pretty much an enemy of NATO. I'll leave it at that.

[Gustaran]

Some countries have opened their borders to hordes of migrants while others have closed them. This is untenable with the ideal of free movement of people within the single market, so the inevitable logical conclusion of the situation as per Rogers is Leaving. This is one major reason why the EU will fall apart.

Freedom of movement has nothing to do with your so called "hordes of migrants". It refers to the 4 foundations of the EU single market: Freedom of goods, capital, services and labour and of course only relates to citizens of the EU.

The free movement of persons means EU citizens can move freely between member states for whatever reason (or without any reason) and to reside in any member state they choose if they aren't an undue burden on social welfare system or public safety in their chosen member state.

A person that is granted asylum in Germany will be assigned to a German state and may not move away for several years. In any case, while immigrants with a legal status in Germany could travel to the UK for vacation, they have neither the right to move there permanently or to seek work within the UK, unless the UK allows it.

So the discussion in the interview about freedom of movement concerns mostly people like Polish or German workers in the UK and has nothing to do with any migrants who recently arrived due to "open borders". The Brexit discussion is about the question if the freedom of movement can be restricted by the UK, while still allowing free trade.

And while I do not know the future, I highly doubt that the question of immigration will even disturb the EU any longer, because everybody knows that certain countries will not take any immigrants at all. If I had to guess I would assume we will see some sort of compromise (i.e. certain countries paying money instead of taking immigrants).

In resepect to Ireland, I just want to humbly point out that this precedent exists: https://www.cvce.eu/en/obj/treaty_establ...ae37f.html

While Germany was split into two countries, Western Germany was a member of proto-EU, while Eastern one wasn't. Somehow, it did not prevent them from having an open (well, semi-open) border between each other at all. There is no reason why a similar solution cannot be adopted for the border between UK and Ireland. Also, this precedent shows, how much full of shit are EU apologists, when they try to construct a narrative that humiliating conditions, being forced upon the UK, are somehow a legal inevitability.

Seriously? You think Western and Eastern Germany had an "open" or "semi-open" border? Tell that to over 450 people who were killed while trying to cross that border. Where do you think the term "Iron Curtain" comes from?

I assume we can agree that the term "open border" in the Brexit process refers to a border without any regular passport or customs checks at all. The EU actually did not have open borders until 1985, when the Schengen agreement outlined a process for open borders in the EU.

That is the issue here, because of course it would still be possible to install a regular border which could be crossed after a check with the correct documentation (I assume that's what you refer to as "semi-open"?).
This would still bring up the question where exactly you want to install that border - I won't go into the discussion why basically nobody wants that border to be between Ireland and Northern Ireland.

But if you have followed the discussion you will know that on a grander scale especially the issue of customs and possible tariffs is the main problem. Many factories in the UK (i.e. cars) import parts from all over the EU and assemble the final product. Production nowadays is so tightly timed that many components have to arrive at a specific time, because warehouse space is expensive. So if you get your daily delivery of tires at the exact point in time, you don't need to store them. Now compare that with having your shipment stuck in customs for varying amounts of time. In addition, imagine suddenly having to pay tariffs when importing components for your product or when exporting your final item on top of that and you will see why the vast majority of people think a "no deal" Brexit would have a very bad influence on the economy.

And even right know the current uncertainty leads to problems:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/busin...36531.html

[Gavagai]

When I called the border "semi-open", I wanted to account for the fact that it was incredibly difficult for Eastern Germans to go to Western Germany, because their own government did not want to allow them out. On the other hand, as I recall, citizens of Western Germany could travel to the East freely. Also, there was a lot of trade going on which was actually used by the West to quietly subsidize the East, I was mostly thinking of that in my initial post. Movement of people across UK-Ireland border has little to do with Brexit anyway, in my understanding, as Britain never was a Schengen country.

[Krill]

Britain and RoI have a Common Travel Area, CTA, which is essentially mini-schengen.

[MJW (ya that one)]

The interesting thing about the WTO is that the UK is a member state now. Ireland isn't: it is the EU that is the member state. So the UK can use the security veto bit but I don't know if Ireland is allowed to unless the EU agrees! If they can't that might be a bit of a hiccup.

I don't see how this would change anything. UK would still be able to claim that they care about the Belfast agreement. They don't need to win, they just have to avoid looking like they don't care about the Belfast agreement.

[Krill]

What I means is how it affects Ireland: they can't use this excuse to get out of closing the border. So do they close the border and break the Belfast agreement, or do they flour the EU.

[Gavagai]

Britain and RoI have a Common Travel Area, CTA, which is essentially mini-schengen.

Yes, and this is perfectly compatible with the fact that Ireland is a part of the Schengen zone while the UK is not. Nothing should change in that respect after Brexit, that was my point. Trade relations between UK and Ireland are another matter, and I have pointed out East-West Germany case as a solution to a similar problem. My point is that this problem, just like all other problems stemming from Brexit, is solvable, assuming that there are political will and general goodwill. But, at the bottom line, EU simply does not recognize that its members have a right to leave, this is why it wants to make leaving for UK as hard, as possible.

[Gustaran]

Yes, and this is perfectly compatible with the fact that Ireland is a part of the Schengen zone while the UK is not.

It seems Ireland is not part of the Schengen Area:

 Of the six EU members that are not part of the Schengen Area, four—Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, and Romania—are legally obliged to join the area, while the other two—Ireland and the United Kingdom—maintain opt-outs.

My point is that this problem, just like all other problems stemming from Brexit, is solvable, assuming that there are political will and general goodwill. But, at the bottom line, EU simply does not recognize that its members have a right to leave, this is why it wants to make leaving for UK as hard, as possible.

I must admit I still don't completely understand what you are suggesting: The UK can of course leave the EU, but it is a different question if it wants to leave the European Single Market as well, isn't it?

So there are two possibilities:

a) Either the UK decides to leave the Single Market to be able to negotiate independent trade deals. That in turns means the introduction of tariffs and customs according to WTO rules becomes necessary and a hard border between the UK and the EU has to be introduced.
Then you can either have the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland (as far as I understand that's problematic because of the Belfast agreement amongst other things). Or Northern Ireland stays in the EU Single Market and the customs border moves to the Irish Sea (which I believe certain British politicians find unacceptable).

b) Alternatively, the UK leaves the EU, but stays in the Single Market. There are no border checks and customs nedded. But of course the UK would have to follow EU trade deals (unfortunately without having a say in it, since the are not an EU member anymore).


I find this is completely logical. I am genuinly interested where you see a problematic behaviour of the EU and what your ideal solution would look like?

[Krill]

The UK can choose not to apply tariffs. There is a good BBC article here: BBC News - WTO rules: What happens if there's a no-deal Brexit?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-46892372

What it boils down to, after a set of steps, is the RoI might refuse to follow EU orders and not introduce a hard border itself and break the Belfast agreement. So the RoI has to start making decisions...