UK Politics Discussion Thread

[darrelljs]

Feels more like child support than alimony .

Darrell

[Krill]

[Mr. Cairo]

Well, it's working for Boris. All the most recent polls in the UK show a major swing from Brexit Party back to the Conservatives. But he loses that if he doesn't actually leave without a deal. So no deal seems inevitable to me.

[ipecac]

He's making all the right noises.

[ipecac]

Conservative Party leadership contender Jeremy Hunt told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that the fact the EU "never believed that no deal was a credible threat" was "one of our mistakes in the last two years".

At best this is utter incompetence. If he's serious Bojo needs to fire them all.

[Mr. Cairo]

Conservative Party leadership contender Jeremy Hunt told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that the fact the EU "never believed that no deal was a credible threat" was "one of our mistakes in the last two years".

At best this is utter incompetence. If he's serious Bojo needs to fire them all.

Why would the EU ever believe that threat or take it seriously?

First, when May was saying "No Deal is Better than a Bad Deal", they were actually negotiating a deal, and completed those negotiations based on the presumption that she could get it through the HoC.

Then it didn't get through, and for a long time there was no coherent message coming out of the UK Gov't at all, except that the HoC doesn't like No Deal. So no matter what the Gov't might have been threatening, the gov't was weak and the HoC was throwing its weight around in its opposition to No Deal.

Now we've got Boris who probably is going to go No Deal (apparently already planning on spending £100 million advertising No Deal). But the EU that has been successfully preparing for a No Deal for months now, and has also proven to its smaller members (like Ireland) that the EU has their back (you can be sure that if Ireland's economy goes the ways of Greeces in 08 as a result of No Deal, the EU's help will come much easier and faster than it ever did with Greece). So it's not a serious threat anymore. The EU is ready for it.



Finally, even if it had been a serious threat from the get go, it still wouldn't have worked. The EU is willing to take economic damage in order to maintain the integrity of the union. That was, is, and always will be their number one goal.

"No Deal is Better than a Bad Deal" works for the EU too, and they have the political will to go through with it. Whereas Boris is going to have to stumble the UK into No Deal, since if the HoC ever gets control, they'll (probably) stop it.

[Krill]

That last point is part of the political calculation: IF the HoC gets to a point where they can table a vote on an amendment to take No Deal off the table, Boris tells Bercow that this vote is to be taken as a vote of no confidence in the government.

Then what happens is the amendment might pass, but it will not become law so has no meaning. Boris refuses to table a new vote of confidence and takes the 2 week grace period. Then sets a date for the election after 31/10/19 and the UK leaves by default.

Hey presto, no negotiation needed, nor any divorce agreement on as nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.

And Boris probably wins a majority because Corbyn is unelectable.


The only snag is someone else might get asked to form a government by the Queen, but no Tory would get it. Corbyn would never pass that VNC as one would be tabled immediately and he would lose as every Tory votes against him. Lib Dems might just make it work and then fall, if they can scrounge the Tory votes they need.

[AdrienIer]

And Boris probably wins a majority because Corbyn is unelectable.

And Boris isn't ?
Also, that belief in Corbyn being a terrible candidate was the reason for May doing a snap election 2 years ago, and that backfired horribly. Don't underestimate the guy.

Although I think that all things considered Boris would have a good chance to win, but not necessarily with a stable majority nor a pro-no deal majority. The reason isn't Corbyn's persona or his ideas on stuff like railways or banking, but rather on the lack of unity behind him (labour establishment is to blame) and the lack of a clear Brexit stance from labour (Corbyn is to blame).

[Krill]

Boris just got a 10 point bounce in electoral polls. So long as he delivers Brexit, the votes for the Tories doesn't collapse. Or that's the media portrayal of the interpretation of that polling data.

The difference between now and 2017 is three fold: the dementia tax policy shat on the older peoples votes, which Boris knows never to mention; the Brexit vote was split but now Corbyn has come out for a further referendum; and the Lib Dems are polling in double figures, higher than Corbyn, as the revoke party which takes votes from Labour but not the Tories.

You don't get it though. The election would be in November. No deal, pro deal, leave revoke. None of it would matter as the UK would have already left. Boris wouldn't even have to win, parliament gets closer down in October and can't stop anything.

[AdrienIer]

The vast majority of polls show Labour ahead of the Libdems. In any case the tories at 30% instead of 25 before Boris's nomination are not in a great position electorally. FPTP means all results are possible with numbers like Tories 30% Labour 25% LibDems 20% Brexit 15%.

I agree that the election would probably be after the deadline, and that no deal brexit is the most likely option on october 31st.