October 19th, 2019, 14:23
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It only takes 9 to flip and ERG should stay on board because of the possibility of a crash out when time runs out for the trade deal (end of 2020 is too fast). I give a slight edge to the deal passing. After that? I agree that DUP would prop up Corbyn for second referendum (the deal is so hostile to Unionists that it will lead to reunification) and he'll get it because UK can just revoke. The EU will be too cowardly to not extend because not extending would cause so much salt (after revoke) that the only options would be a No Deal or No Brexit. Corbyn wouldn't put No Deal on the ballot but his goverment would soon implode which would cause another election where Leave would have an overwhelming advantage because their vote wouldn't be split.
October 19th, 2019, 15:08
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(October 19th, 2019, 14:23)MJW (ya that one) Wrote: It only takes 9 to flip and ERG should stay on board because of the possibility of a crash out when time runs out for the trade deal (end of 2020 is too fast). I give a slight edge to the deal passing. After that? I agree that DUP would prop up Corbyn for second referendum (the deal is so hostile to Unionists that it will lead to reunification) and he'll get it because UK can just revoke. The EU will be too cowardly to not extend because not extending would cause so much salt (after revoke) that the only options would be a No Deal or No Brexit. Corbyn wouldn't put No Deal on the ballot but his goverment would soon implode which would cause another election where Leave would have an overwhelming advantage because their vote wouldn't be split.
If this WA passes and there's an extension I don't think there would be enough votes in the HoC to make Corbyn PM, even with the DUP. None of the ex-Tory independents would back him, and it's not guaranteed that all the Lib Dems and SNP will either. And if the EU offers an extension, then Labour will vote for an election, not a referendum. That's been Labour policy for a while now.
Also if the WA passes and happens, that's good for Labour. Because that massively splits the vote on the right. Suddenly, Johnson isn't "No Deal", he's "Surrender Deal" as I have no doubt that Farage and the Brexit Party will call it. And Labour will campaign on staying in the SM and get back most of their voters from the Brexit Party, and the Lib Dems are too weak on domestic policy. If the UK leaves the EU with a deal, the Conservative Party will crash and burn in an election.
October 19th, 2019, 15:36
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To be clear, between the DUP, Labour, Lib Dems and SNP there are enough votes to elect a PM.
The real question is what set of circumstances makes them work together.
DUP will vote for Corbyn if it stops that deal from occurring. SNP will vote for Corbyn if it is the only way to stop leaving the EU, Lib Dems are in the same boat.
So if the Boris WA passes, then what happens? If there is an extension, would Corbyn be able to get an election? Are there enough votes between between Labour and Tories to get it? There are, so they could force the issue there. But the GE would have to come after extension, not before, otherwise we end up with a no deal situation. So will Corbyn be able to find the angle to make it happen?
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October 20th, 2019, 06:57
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Election Maps UK projects a CON majority of 65 if the election was held today. The winner is determined by who can bleed off more votes-- Lib Dems or Brexit. CONs will lose some votes if their fail their deal but BJ's plan would be okay for most on the right. NI is going to reunify anyway due to demographics. Tilt Tory.
Labour will offer a bunch of amendments too. Everyone knows that EU will not talk with Parliment with BJ hampering them so it would be a vote against any deal (without a National Unity Goverment to get rid of BJ). It could trick 4-6 MPs which would tip the scales but Tory still has slight edge.
October 20th, 2019, 19:35
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Labour is going for second referendum--probably because Libs Dems would bleed off more votes (especially considering that UKIP came from 1/4 labour 3/4 con so Brexit would effectively only bleed off half of their number).
October 20th, 2019, 23:39
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Boris' surprise moves and the screeching that follows are the bright spots in this sorry spectacle. Cummings has a brilliant strategic mind.
October 21st, 2019, 03:03
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Acting unlawfully is not strategically brilliant, it's criminal.
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October 21st, 2019, 03:59
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They wanted him to send a letter, he sent it together with a second letter, big deal.
October 21st, 2019, 05:42
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(October 21st, 2019, 03:03)Krill Wrote: Acting unlawfully is not strategically brilliant, it's criminal.
It's been ruled not illegal - and the EU seems to be intentionally ignoring the subtext of Boris not signing it, but this kind of immature "I thumb my nose at thee" isn't something worthy of acclaim.
October 21st, 2019, 05:51
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I was thinking about the fake prorogation, but where has the letter bit been ruled on?
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