Brexit Political Discussion Thread

[MJW (ya that one)]

DDHQ will cover the UK election. Exit poll is at 4pm my time. Still only tilt tory win, mostly due to Lib Dems inevitably getting squeezed at the last second and Brexit Party having nothing to get squeezed.

[MJW (ya that one)]

Tories +50 (345-320)*2. From electoral maps uk and Jon Worth (from Brexit Flowchart) idea of 320 being enough to win. Still only tilt tory due to lib dem voters inevitable last second tactical voting while Brexit Party has nothing left to give.

[MJW (ya that one)]

Why this election is only tilt tory. 

   

[MJW (ya that one)]

If Tories win this Labour will ditch Corbyn and will no longer be able to hid their contempt for the working class and become a left-wing party. So it would be two left wing parties (social issues) which would hand the Tories another easy win. But then the lib dems would implode because they will be the left party who doesn't win any seats and spoils Labour. This would cause a two-party system where Tories sometimes have to give the DUP a magic money tree to get over the finish line and where Labour always has to give SNP a magic money tree.

Speaking about SNP if Boris is smart he'll offer a second indyreferendum to SNP ASAP and campgin for Union. If he wins he wins. If he loses he gets rid of SNP and wins.

[MJW (ya that one)]

Polls look promising but dumb cell phone grab and lib dems still having more to give to labour (while Brexit has nothing) makes it only tilt tory victory.

[Krill]

Pulling figures out of my arse: Tory majority of 5.

For every seat the Tories gain over this I'll give Darrell a compliment.

[Mardoc]

Pulling figures out of my arse: Tory majority of 5.

For every seat the Tories gain over this I'll give Darrell a compliment.

That would be just enough to still be deadlocked over Brexit, right?

[Krill]

Probably not, every Tory standing in this election is standing on a manifesto to pass Boris' deal, and Boris has managed to get rid of every Tory MP who was being difficult with him earlier parliamentary shenanigans. The only thing that might throw a spanner in the works is the potential for Tory MPs to vote down the deal if there is still the potential no deal scenario that occurs if there is no free time are agreement at the end of the transition period. Still, I think that every Tory MP toes the party line and passes that deal so long as the Tories have a majority of 2. A majority of 1 would be enough...but some fuck up would happen. Majority of 5 and it's going to pass.

[Krill]

If it's a hung parliament then who knows. Corbyn probably just needs to risk a referendum in that scenario,but he is unlikely to want it and Tory's would refuse to vote for it.

[MJW (ya that one)]

Second to last update show tory victory of +34. Electoral Maps UK & Jon Worth.