[Spoilers]C6PBEM23: Krill sidles yonder, and probably fails

[Krill]

T99

Shock, horror, this turn. Players that area isolated build wonders and don't build military: TAD built the Colosseum and jumped to 64 culture per turn. That will royally piss off Whosit who was trying to build it.

I'd be concerned, but why be bothered about shit you can't change?




I thought that Whosit would be a counter balance to TAD, but that obviously changed when greenline turned out to be an unsurmountable obstacle to him. Now I don't really see what there is to stop TAD from trying to a straightforward space victory...apart from his failure to put himself in a position to build a working navy. Babelfish is coastal. Vogon Poetry can have a lake harbour. Mostly harmless and IID are land locked. Don't Panic can get a harbour though. But he can't get a navy into the Antarctic ocean short of a canal at Babelfish and a city crammed in minimum distance to VP and BF (just between that banana, stone and spice).

Culture is not going to be a problem for him. Maybe even a culture victory is on the cards. But his science, well, it only looks good because he picked up the Pingala promotion. I suspect that it might be about to drop through the floor (unless he also picks Free Enquiry on T101, but I doubt that. He is going Monumentality with 600 saved faith). 38 bpt. Whosit is making 64 and it will not drop as he will take Free Inquiry again. Mine is about to reach...70? bpt around T103? And 46ish culture per turn which is enough. And I have all the eurekas, the biggest eurekas (the best eurekas...*groan*) at that so I don't see him catching me, nor Whosit in tech. greenline doesn't matter in this comparison, except for how much of a pain greenline is for me and Whosit to deal with.

There is a single frontline encampment which will do nothing except open up an Alhambra build. Any assault would be naval in nature and simply bypass it. For me that requires a single canal build in the largest and most productive (well, possibly) city in the world. Chev is already on the other side of that ocean and he does like his naval invasions and he is about to get a science boost from Free Inquiry. Plus all the other stuff as he will get an Heroic age as well, do not count him out.

I don't think TAD is a runaway at this point. OTOH, his religion isn't going to spread itself now, so he needs to be proactive. And how can he do this without a navy? He could try and break through me, but he hits the same problem: If I have a navy anything coming down that isthmus gets turned to mush.




And here is another problem: greenline passed on the GS. TAD will get to Zhang Heng, and likely pass. I'm quite happy to let the GS rot, I don't need them except to help trigger the Enlightenment. But I will get a Medieval Great Admiral (Chev and I will be splitting them) and I only need one more. But that isn't the biggest issue.

Whosit is going to pass on Boudicca, he will get there two turns before me. And I'm going to pass as well. So that run down the isthmus is going to be done the hard way, and then the units will get pounded on by GA powered boats and faster movement. And Ponytail is only attackable from one tile!

No, I'm in a decent position. Get Military Engineering, but after I take IW (to clear the way for the eureaks to land where I want them, and IW costs me no beakers at this point once hte cost decrease comes in), and after I take Shipbuilding (one more turn). Stockpile niter. Then go straight through to Cartography for Caravels to unlock Exploration for the new government and head on to Square Rigging. Detour to Gunpowder if I can upgrade a warrior to a musket if barbs show again (Stirrups plus Gunpowder with both Free Inquiry eurekas = 444 beakers. Square Rigging eureka = 525 beakers). TAD doesn't have an awful lot of play against this IMO, so he probably plays the builder for a bit longer.

It takes 5 turns to get to Cartography. Military Engineering, IW take a further 2. Castles is a rounding issue. That's 13 turns, to get to Square Rigging, so I could start researching it around T115 as I'm pretty sure I'm underestimating this. I reckon SR could be done by T127? So If I were inclined to offer a DoF, I actually want to do it sooner rather than later. I'm not sure if I am though...

If I don't have Niter, throw the PC out the window.

[Krill]

T100

I had to trawl through the Canadian PBEM18 thread (epic as it is) to clarify a point: tech costs are reduced prior to culture being calculated. It screwed Williams over whilst teching Machinery. I'll assume that civic costs are reduced at the same time. I have a plan (finish Feudalism this turn is part of it), however I'll try to do a city by city update next turn because I still have a couple of choices to make (Long Lilja for a 1 turn quicker size 10, buy a 5 charge builder in Mullet or two six charge builders in Ponytail, UP or Land Surveyors for a single tile buy etc).




The big news is that TAD offered DoF and I accepted. I don't want to get into a pissing contest until I know where niter is. Also, I should get a diplo victory point every time I'm DoF'ed with the entire world.




Oh, and something else for lurkers to know: I offered greenline salt for silver. I have a duplicate hooked, but greenline does not. He does have a second source at Tourdin. I hope he does not see this as some form of a demand, I'm simply trying to communicate I'll trade him salt for silver if he will hooked up the spare. This is "bad" for me from a loyalty perspective, but given Venice would fall to Whosit, and I can't get Urtin Duu to revolt I son't really consider that much of a downside given I'm about to create explosive growth in three cities andd I want to maintain the ecstatic state in all of them for as long as possible.

[Krill]

Turn 101




I got the (un)holy trinity of FI, PBV and Monumentality.

Chev has an Heroic age, and obviously went PBV and FI (culture and science increases). I don't know if he has gone Monumentality or EoE. I'd guess Monumentality when he only has 4 cities.

Whosit is in a GA, his science rate didn't change so he has stuck with FI.

TAD is in a GA has just spent 650 faith and 350 gold and I see a settler in Babelfish. Thats Monumentality to fill out his lands given he can't get his religion any further than it already is (he went EotE in the last GA, otherwise he would have had a science and culture rate change, and spent the faith sooner if he was already in Monumentality).

greenline...look he is in a normal age, does it really matter? Probably in FI.





Lots going on here. Settler in Babelfish, I need to go and block the hill again. I found Crater Lake (and the first person to!) Whosit finished Oracle...why build that? To spend gold on buying GP? Don't you have better things to spend that gold on?





I decided against Feudal Contract and putting some production into an archer. A one turn faster trade route makes a minimum 3 food and 3 production, with the faster growth etc, and culture is going so fast I think I will get an opportunity to swap into Feudal Contract shortly before I need the archer anyway. The extra turn of Veterancy is another 6 production so it's actually a bit of a wash. I am going to throw the envoy into Hong Kong to open up options

On that note, there are so few options remaining that short of a long shot play that Venice comes back and using La Venta for a Levy to attack Whosit, I reckon Hong Kong is the best place to stuff envoys as it is the CS most likely to live the longest. Preslav will get removed by Archduke in the next 20 turns (before I can try and snipe it). Zanzibar is nigh impossible to surround so...efficiency: 2 envoys for the cost of 2 points.





Mo Li Hua is screwed. No way that I can see to save it, all the govenors are in place, there is no opportunity to grow it, can't really get amenities and withotu size 7 not going to get an Entertainment district with bread and circuses. I'm more surprised at Urtin Duu, that's a 14 loyalty swing and Mullet is about to explode, each 1 pop in Mullet or Long is 0.75 loyalty chunk taken out of Urtin Duu.

To be clear: I would happily take over Urtin Duu but I would rather Venice stay as a CS or in greenlines hands. I do not want to border Whosit.







Whosit never had a reason to scout the north as he never intended to settle it until late game. Chev wouldn't waste his time. greenline kept his units close to capture Venice. TAD got blocked. Hence not that shocking I'm the first to find it.




So...greenline accepted the trade. I'm not complaining. One benefit to him is the deal ends sooner so he may be able to renegotiate, but I suspect he just took the offer because he did not want to potentially lose the salt to someone else.





Plan: IZ until I can build the next trader. Place the Dam ASAP (realistically teh turn after the GS triggers so maybe T109 or T100. Fit in Colonization for a settler, but only to build the settler until one turn from completion, then wait for Magnus to establish. Workshop ASAP: I want Imhotep. Prepare to spam quadriemes. I need two catapults to upgrade to Trebs, which puts a solid crimp in any plan as that forces a delay on Military Engineering. Something has to give.

The turtles should be claimed by T110. One of the six charges is currently allocated to improve it (likely the last charge).





I could have used Lilja (food) this turn to grow (alternative to the archer), but I'm actually slightly limited by getting the GS back to a Campus. Excess beakers ends up dumped into Stirrups (not a bad tech to dump them into). Culture is also quite challenging: I'm limited by Ponytail completing the lighthouse to get the fourth trade route slot) for the Medieval Faires inspiration, and the tech to Cartography for Exploration, so extra culture just pushes me through Recorded History. But I also need production for a barracks and then Armoury to trigger Gunpowder, and I also need the Campus (for 2 universities) for the Printing eureka (and the Astro eureka as the Volcano is a mountain).

Magnus and Pingala will be swapped on T103. Long is going on a hard core building spree, and the 5 charge Mullet Builder will mine the two plains hills. I think the Campus and Barracks will be done in 8 turns, but the Armoury goes down ASAP for Gunpower, unless I have no niter, in which all bets are off. Given the catapult challenge, I possibly have to interrupt both Long and MH to build a catapult each (2 cats upgraded in Professional Army is 240 hammers and around 180 gold for 525 beakers).





Once Ponytail finishes the lighthouse it will move straight onto the encampment (Building for the +1 Zanzibar envoy). This is not my preferred encampment position but if niter popped on the wrong tile it could destroy any canal placement (or force the harvesting of the game tile). Builder is planned to improve the fish, game and lumber mill the hill tiles before moving to Lumberjack. Trader will be moved here T102 for a straight +3 food, and once Magnus is in MH, that increases to +5.





Mullet is tight. I need a guv'nor to get to size 10 or to steal lots of tiles (the guv is cheaper), but once the harbour is in and the fish (T103) and crab (T105) are improved it can start growing again. I will also swap over the 4 yield Long farm and the horses to ensure growth occurs ASAP. Lighthouse second because I need to work the cost to reach size 10 and that gives further housing. This will be the city recieving the third trader from Ponytails lighthouse. Very quickly surpass base 12fpt, should ultimately reach 18fpt or so, hence the rapid growth comment. Given that growth and housing via builder improvements and the lighthouse are so tightly linked, I'm not really looking beyond that. There are so few land tiles I'm strongly considering building a water park as the only other district: all the land tiles might get subsumed by MH and Long.

Mullet is not a bad city to production in the medium term, but given the long term likelihood of losing all the tiles, and the fact there is no way out of this Atlantic ocean, I doubt I need to build boats here. But if I really needed to Mullet can reach over 30 production per turn without a shipyard; with a shipyard and with some of the tundra forests it should still go over 20 before adding in factories etc.





Second trader gets moved hereI'm relying on MH and Mullet picking up the good tiles here. a monument just picks up the crud: I'd rather force Lilja the way to size 10 for the free culture, lumber mills on tundra forests are 2.5 food in that scenario. Granary later for the housing, and a market is needed but only for the trade route, I've given up on the Guilds inspiration. Aqueduct to be placed ASAP. The farm labelled is one of the Ponytail builder charges (I think fourth) which ups housing to 6 and buys some time. The forest chop is the fith charge and still not sure where that gets placed (good chance it is the aqueduct but still thinking into MH for maximum benefit).

This city is essentially useless for building military.





In the first vote, I hope Chev realises this is the best for both of us and puts his points into Great Admirals. If we put points into stopping anything else, there would never be good or effective co-ordination and hence this is likely the better option.

Urban planning was worring me, because if people voted against harbours I'd struggle now, However, why would anyone? Everyone thinks about what is best for them in a positive fashion, or what hurts the leader. No one is going to be worried about me in this position. a positive IZ vote seems like a safe choice. Chev and I mostly have lighthouses down so the harbour isn't actually that helpful in a positive sense. I don't want Campuses to benefit as that helps TAD (he can grow his pop all he likes but it will not be enough, but cripple Campuses and he's done for with tech hence my plan to lock out the GS if he doesn't take Zhang Heng). I can't get Chev to criple Holy Sites and I doubt he sees TAD as a threat, and Whosit will throw all his weight infront of anything that does not break his 4 commercial districts.

OTOH, every player just reached Apprenticeships and have IZ under construction (except Chev), so throw the vote that way and hope it wins.

[Krill]

T102




Bah, Chev screwed the pooch on this one.

On GP, he focused on who he perceives to be the leader but he doesnt know that TAD is waiting in the wings to usurp the throne. Lack of understanding of the game position led him to vote to weaken someone when I will hold the great admiral choice was the correct play and now TAD gets his GS points. Similar issue from greenline: Boudicca is worthless and you will see players skip her, but at least it is understandable that he is trying to protect himself. I have no idea why a three way split got resolved in favour of TAD. Probably RNG.

On the bright side that means TAD has to pick up Zhang Heng before he gets any benefit. I will benefit to a small degree (need the two libraries and universities anyway), and greenline will also help weaken the benefit to TAD. I will definitely pass on Zhang Heng if TAD passes, and laugh whilst doing so.

Chev voted for holy sites. The only other player voting for that could have been TAD but he already has most of his buildings up. Chev cant know that, but not like he had many other choices as he lacks Apprenticeship. greenline just voted for whatever but then the rest of us got the easy win for IZ.

Edit: reviewing the save, Whosit is generating 4 gg points again. He is running the GG points card, so it looks like he actually wants Boudicca?!

[Quagma Blast]

I have no idea why a three way split got resolved in favour of TAD. Probably RNG.

IIRC when there is a World Council tie, the tiebreaker is who spent the greatest percentage of their diplo points.

[Krill]

Well that's a little bit shittty.

Have 30 points and spend them, win a tie breaker against someone who has 39 and can't spend the spare? Not like you can even micro diplo points, RNG would be fairer.

[Krill]

Note to self:

Culture path up in the air. Will need to swap off MF in a couple of turns as fouth trade route not available until T108 and no where close to Cartography anyway.

Build queues:

MH: overflow into IZ, then trader (from Pt lighthouse), chop forest into IZ and complete, then consider options. Probable Workshop afterwards (should only take 3 turns and you want the GE points)

Long: double check if the barracks can be built in 2 turns. If so, Barracks into Campus. If not, Campus first.

Ponytail: Lighthouse into catapult.

Mullet: No change, harbour into lighthouse.

Gold: should have around 550 gold saved by T108. If MF completes start of T109, then enough gold to buy a settler, or to buy two builders and a tile or two. Probably need to buy the settler, simply don't have the production to get everything. That still gives enough time to save the gold to upgrade the galleys due to tech limitations.

[Krill]

Further notes to self:

Great people:

GG: If Whosit picks up Boudicca, all 4 Medieval options aren't great but are acceptable, just accept whatever is available. If Whosit rejects Boudicca, consider options to use the GG to support a musket raid on a barb camp.

GAd: Himerios is up, but he is the worst Medieval GAd, although Leif is also pretty naff for me. That leaves a 2/3 chance of getting a decent admiral. Probably reject and make Chev decide if he wants to lock himself out of future GAd? Not that important, Chev will claim a admiral in 16 or so turns, I need to make the decision in about 10 turns or so.

GS: If TAD rejects Zhang Heng, I reject and lock them all up. If he accepts ZH, then greenline will get first dibs on the next GS and I should then get the second, as I should be capable of outpacing TAD with another campus completed. If Hildegard comes up first, greenline will reject her, and I have to accept even though she is junk status to me. If she comes up second, same problem but I pay more GS points. If she doesn't come up, well, I would have to reject whichever GS was second to stop TAD from getting his preferred GS (She's worth at least 8bpt to him).

I'll go on record and note that greenline would probably be in a better position if he simply accepted ZH. I think he passed around T87, which means that over 15 turns will have passed before he can start accumulating GS points again. He would likely have more points towards the next GS if he had accepted ZH! Even if he never triggered him it's a free scout.

[Krill]

T105

I wasn't planning on doing an update until the weekend, but is it possible that the RNG will stop screwing me over?

Hildegard is the new GS. greenline gets first dibs on her, but he will reject her as worthless again and then I think TAD will get there before me. I might need to run the GS card for a few turns to not get shut out, or might want to see if I can sandbag the first Renaissance GS.

Then Whosit took over Zanzibar again and my culture got a little more crushed down. Probably got an easy quest. I've had to give up on the catapult build to build the Encampment (Zanzibar is more important than Preslav) but it will be 7 or so turns before I can take it back (because of taking the 2 for 1 offer at Hong Kong). I'm probably just going to give up and throw every single envoy into Zanzibar now. Also the loss of the happiness broke some of the city builds slightly which is really annopying for how minor it is. Along with juggling Pingala and Magnus I'm down about 20 culture compared to where I should be (for a few turns anyway).

[Krill]

T107

Bit of a bigger update after a couple of points came to my attention.




TAD offered 25 gold as a gift. It's probably a timer to do with Whosit. I don't know for sure, but as TAD has a low science rate and has only just settled two cities on his eastern coast I don't think he could do anything. Therefore I'm probably wrong. I accepted the gold though, and sent a delegation back (that was my second guess, but why not just send the delegation?)

The big point here is that TAD is probably starting to consider the challenges of Whosit. I've done some major amenity trading between players to maximise everyones happy situation. It should be noted that Whosit seems to have every lux (seriously: he has salt, spice, olives, truffles, silks, marble, turtles, honey and silver either hooked or available) in available in the game, which is to be expected when he has about a third of the map to himself.

Edit: One thing I forgot the mention: TAD is in Monarchy. That puts him about 612 culture ahead of me on the route to Divine Right, but I don't know when he got DR, but he was in Monarchy on T106 (God I hate that Chivalry is on DR, it just makes Monarchy too good. MR shouldn't be hamstrung by the second diplomacy card).




Since doing the salt for silver trade with greenline, I've traded my lone spice to Chev for olives, and then traded my lone turtle to TAD for his spare spice. I'll hook a second turtle shortly. If Chev can pick up another olive, and greenline hooks his spare silver, we are at a maximum the map allows in terms of resource amenities (well, we would be if greenline would offer OB and fix his turtle).





I fired off the GS, and this is the current state of the tech tree. My science rate should increase to about 85 next turn. I'm about 15 beakers from Buttress (Due SoT108) and 25 beakers from Military Engineering (SoT109) before Cartography should land SoT113. I'm 1 tech behind Whosit, who already has ME and Stirrups, and I suspect his extra tech is Buttress.





Order of operations matters. I think that if Erasmus' post in the tech thread is correct, both guv'nors will establish, and then the increased culture from extra amenities will complete Mercenries SoT108. I waste culture if I go MF next, so have to put a turn of culture into D&P, and then finish MF S0T110 with a solid chunk of overflow. I can't upgrade two galleys until T113 at the earliest, so I probably have to swap over to D&P to complete SoT114 (a turn after Cartography), swap to Professional Army and then upgrade, and then swap back with Exploration. I should be able to complete Exploration SoT115 this way, so minimal card cost.

In relation to preferred card options:

• Naval Infrastructure is a given, worth 14gpt and 14bpt (base)
  
• Charismatic Leader needs to be swapped out to stop the generation of an envoy in CR, and delay it until I'm in Merchant Republic. I think I am at 57 now, so if it looks like there will be any delays, I need to action the swap ASAP. I will probably move over to Merchant Confederation when MF is complete (an extra 7gpt).
  
• Veterancy can be swapped for MI at any point, but as I would only want it for two turns, the Merc>MF window is likely best, but MF>D&P might also work, timing dependent. Otherwise I do want Veterancy.
  
• The final card remains UP, but the choice will shortly be 5 production pt or 8gpt. I think the production still wins for now, and likely will still win even with the fifth route and the sixth city down.
  
  
  
  
  
  The big update. Whosit passed on Bouddica. Big mistake IMO, a large bowl of greed with a side order of hubris.
  
  Whosit: For after the game, you always had to pick up Boudicca. You never had the option to reject her. You are the player with the long land border, who intends to go on the offensive, who needs the GG, not any of the other players. You have the high ground in terms of GG point generation.
  
  You were always going to reach her before me because I generated so few points and you used the Strategos card to get to the other GG so fast. When it became obvious that I was not going to speed up you had a hint that you had to pick her up, but even that is a red herring. If I got there first and rejected her, you would still have had to pick her up to keep the GG tap flowing.
  
  To the lurkers: I have spent most of this morning looking at if I wanted Boudicca. The cost has always been giving Whosit a straight +5 strength bonus in his next war and having to deal with that, and even with a new encampment at Ponytail, and building an armoury and barracks at Long, I might be able to equalize that cost with another GG of my own, but Chev and greenline can't. And I would expect Whosit to get two of the Medieval GG so he could easily fight on two fronts.
  
  The benefit is minimal. The only barb camp that exists (thanks to the low difficulty) is actually to Whosits north. It would take about 12 turns to even get there, so I can't be sure that there would even be any barbs left to capture. In relation to the actual GG ability, that is only helpful for capturing Venice if it revolts to free city status, but I've made a strategic decision I'm not going to attack greenline or TAD militarily (as that only helps Whosit), so it only helps if I can send a bunch of units north. So Boudicca is not helpful except to meet the Enlightenment inspiration (I will get to Great Admirals plus the GS I already got so this isn't a problem).
  
  The era point would have been nice though. I can live without it: I'm still not sure if I want a GA or dark age next.
  
  
  
  
  
  Ponytail: I'm considering delaying the encampment 2 turns, swapping out of Veterancy and into Maritime Industries to two turn a galley. Then I can upgrade this galley to get a move on the scout of the Rheic (western) ocean. The cost is 2 turns not in control of Zanzibar, which is a high cost so I'm not sold on it just yet.
  
  Long: Campus completes due to planned overflow after completing the horseman (before the Castles completed). The swap to MI would delay the barracks, OTOH MI allows me to build a quadrieme. This is risky because if I have no niter then I can't upgrade, but the Armoury is not high priority if I lack niter either because I can't build muskets.
  
  Weirdly enough, if I have no niter, I really need to look at what plans I have with Long as I might need to start building Men at Arms so I will need to look at policy card use.
  
  MH: Trader completes, moves to Lumberjack and makes the fourth trade route on T109. It got pushed back as I had to build the archer. Annoying but what are you going to do, but at the same time it should line up perfectly with the galley plan. The forest is chopped next turn and the IZ should also complete SoT109. The Dam should be placed T108, then probably going to three turn a workshop. I will likely leave the dam until after I'm in Merchant Republic for the +15% production of districts (in what should be a 300 production district!)
  
  Mullet: Going to hit housing difficulties unless I buy a granary or move horse and maize in (which is a surprisingly cheap option and what I'll do). Can't get a guv'nor in until SoT115 but at that point it will blitz through to size 10 at 15 base fpt. Lighthouse could be paused but won't be: this speeds up the trader for Wulrus, and I buy the settler for Walrus next turn.
  
  Lumberjack: Place IZ next turn (will be expensive at about 190 production) and struggle onwards. Should have fourth trade route making 5f/4ppt which will break the housing provision. Can't get tile improvements as a cheap solution due to lack of tiles. Might have to go with the granary option as a makeshift solution?
  
  
  
  
  
  Usually when we talk about winning and losing on T0, I'm a bit sceptical of hyperbole. I think this start might well have an argument for being an obviously OP start.
  
  Double capital horse, spice and honey with a second ring wheat to get the irrigation eureka? A double mountain campus location (it's disaster setting 1 so the volcano counts), or the volcano/geothermal vent location? Three easy to access CS. It even has the single capital desert tile for the Mids. The only thing it is missing is a capital river for a watermill, it still has the river for the commercial district. Then there are all the amenities...
  
  Really, this game would be totally different if greenline started around Chartreaux. Ah well, maybe next time.